JPMorgan has a stark warning on Tesla stock

Tesla just missed on deliveries, missed on energy storage, and now has one of Wall Street's most prominent bears renewing his case for significant further declines.JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated an Underweight rating on Tesla on April 6 and maintained his $145 price target, which implies roughly 60% downside from where the stock currently trades. The note came after Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 358,023 vehicles, 4% below the Bloomberg consensus of 372,000 and 7% below JPMorgan's own forecast of 385,000, according to EV Magazine."We advise investors approach TSLA shares with a high degree of caution," Brinkman wrote in his note.What the delivery numbers showedTesla produced 408,386 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026 but delivered only 358,023, leaving a gap of more than 50,000 unsold vehicles, according to EV Magazine. While deliveries were up 6.3% year over year and production rose 12.6%, both figures fell short of analyst expectations.More Tesla:Elon Musk’s Terafab bet: what it means for Tesla investorsBank of America revamps Tesla stock priceUBS has a message for Tesla stock investorsHistory of Tesla & its stock: Timeline, facts & milestonesEnergy storage was a sharper disappointment. Tesla deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hours in the quarter, down 15% from a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year decline since the second quarter of 2022. The result came in 42% below JPMorgan's model of 15.1 GWh.JPMorgan cuts its earnings estimatesBrinkman lowered his first-quarter earnings per share estimate to $0.30 from $0.43, below the Bloomberg consensus of $0.38. He also cut his full-year 2026 EPS forecast to $1.80 from $2.00, which now sits below the consensus estimate of $1.95.The note acknowledged Tesla's strengths, including what Brinkman described as a "highly differentiated business model, appealing product portfolio, and leading-edge technology." But he argued those positives are "more than offset by above-average execution risk, rising competition, growing controversy with regard to the brand, and valuation that seems to be pricing in a lot.”On the question of expansion into lower-priced vehicles, Brinkman was pointed. "Expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution, and competition," he wrote.The headwinds stacking up against TeslaJPMorgan's bearish stance reflects a broader set of pressures bearing down on the company. The Trump administration allowed the $7,500 federal EV purchase incentive to expire, removing a key demand driver. Chinese competition continues to intensify. And growing public scrutiny tied to Elon Musk's political activities has added a brand risk element that is difficult to quantify.Tesla's stock has fallen nearly 20% year to date. The $145 price target JPMorgan is maintaining represents its view of where the stock should trade by December 2026. STR/Getty Images Where Wall Street standsJPMorgan's call goes firmly against the broader analyst consensus. Of the 54 analysts covering Tesla, only 10 carry a negative rating on the stock, according to CNBC.Morgan Stanley sits at the other end of the spectrum, maintaining an Equalweight rating with a $415 price target.

Analyst Andrew Percoco described Tesla's ability to scale its unsupervised robotaxi fleet as "the most important catalyst for the stock this year," adding that he expects the stock "to trade in close correlation to progress in the scaling of the unsupervised robotaxi fleet in Austin and the seven incremental city launches expected by the end of June."Where key analysts stand on Tesla heading into Q1 earnings:JPMorgan: Underweight, $145 price target, ~60% downsideMorgan Stanley: Equalweight, $415 price target, robotaxi scaling key catalystOf 54 analysts covering Tesla, only 10 hold a negative ratingTesla reports first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 22 after market close. Investors will be watching management's commentary on full-year delivery guidance, the energy storage ramp, and the robotaxi rollout timeline closely. JPMorgan's position is that the numbers, and the valuation, do not add up regardless of what that call delivers.Related: UBS has a message for Tesla stock investors