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Japan's Stronger GDP And Limited Gas Price Risks Support A BoJ Rate Hike In June

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Japan’s GDP grew 1.3% annualized in Q4 2025, surpassing initial estimates of 0.2%, driven by robust business spending and steady household consumption in goods and services. The Bank of Japan is expected to delay its interest rate hike until June, maintaining current rates in April due to stable retail gasoline prices reducing inflationary pressures. Household spending fell 1.0% year-on-year in January, defying market expectations of a 2.4% rise but improving from December’s 2.6% decline, signaling mixed consumer confidence. Business investment surged 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, outpacing preliminary forecasts, reinforcing economic resilience despite weak wage growth and external trade challenges. Analysts cite contained energy costs and gradual wage recovery as key factors supporting a June rate hike, balancing growth momentum with cautious monetary tightening.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(5min)CommentsSummaryJapan’s GDP expanded more than expected in the last quarter of 2025, and household spending on goods and private services remains on track in January.With retail gasoline prices contained, the Bank of Japan is likely to delay any rate hike to June, standing pat in April.Household spending unexpectedly dropped 1.0% year-on-year in January (vs -2.6% in December, 2.4% market consensus). P. Kijsanayothin/E+ via Getty Images By Min Joo Kang, Senior Economist, South Korea and Japan GDP revised up from 0.2% quarter-on-quarter to 1.3% annualised The upward revision to Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP was mostly due to strong business spending (1.3% vs flashThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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