It’s a ‘black swan’ moment in oil but nowhere else. The stock market is at risk of a 20% fall, say these strategists.

Site SearchClearSEARCHAdvanced Search ➔Search ResultsSymbolsNo results foundAll NewsArticlesVideoPodcasts0 ResultsNo Results FoundAuthorsNo results foundSectionsNo results foundColumnsNo results found Need to KnowIt’s a ‘black swan’ moment in oil but nowhere else. The stock market is at risk of a 20% fall, say these strategists.If betting markets are right, increased volatility is likely to drag the S&P 500 lower, say strategistsLast Updated: March 18, 2026 at 9:31 a.m. ETFirst Published: March 18, 2026 at 6:41 a.m. ETShareResizeListen(6 min)The oil market is experiencing black-swan-style pricing, but stocks and bonds are not. Photo: Getty ImagesIf you were only to look at the S&P 500 and not any source of news, you might have trouble identifying when the war in Iran started. The market peaked three trading days before hostilities broke out, and the S&P 500 SPX didn’t break out of a three-month trading range until a week later. About the Author Steve GoldsteinSteven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.Show Conversation (0)Back To TopA Dow Jones CompanyCopyright © 2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.Terms of UsePrivacy NoticeCookie NoticeArchive MarketwatchCustomer CenterContact UsNewslettersNewsroom RosterVirtual Stock ExchangeMarketWatch GuidesCopyright PolicyManage NotificationsCancel My SubscriptionCompanyDow JonesCode of ConductCorrectionsReprints & LicensingDigital Self ServiceYour Ad ChoicesCorporate SubscriptionsAccessibilityDow Jones NetworkThe Wall Street JournalBarron'sInvestor's Business DailyFinancial News Londonrealtor.comMansion GlobalDow Jones Smart MoneyIntraday Data provided by FACTSET and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by FACTSET. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.