'Interim' Disinflation Within The Inflationary Macro

Gary Tanashian63.34K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryThe macro environment has shifted from disinflationary to inflationary since 2022, with bonds signaling long-term inflation risk.Short-term and intermediate Treasury bonds offer interim opportunities, but when the inflationary macro kicks back in, bonds will not be desirable.Commodities, led by gold and silver, are currently resilient despite disinflation; the broader commodity complex remains strong amid inflationary pressures. Interim disinflation may or may not disrupt the bull market.The post-election outlook warns of a stagflationary phase, driven by renewed inflationary policies and saturated bond markets.Markets going forward will be unlike those of the past. Internals are shifting and it will take real work to understand and adjust to coming realities. niphon/iStock via Getty Images The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro In line with our long-standing view that the now inflationary macro would undergo its first counter-trend, an interim disinflationary trend, Treasury bondsThis article was written byGary Tanashian63.34K FollowersFollowGary Tanashian is proprietor of NFTRH.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' (https://nftrh.com/nftrh-premium/). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the public website (https://nftrh.com).Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SHY, IEI, IEF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.