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Inflation Expectations Jump With Iran War, Fed Survey Finds

Jonnelle Marte
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⚡ Quantum Brief
U.S. near-term inflation expectations surged in March by the largest margin in a year, reaching 3.4% for the next 12 months, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released April 2026. The 0.4 percentage-point increase from February reflects consumer concerns over rising gas and food prices tied to escalating Middle East conflicts, particularly the Iran war. Three-year inflation expectations also ticked up slightly to 3.1%, though long-term (five-year) projections remained stable at 3%, suggesting limited confidence in lasting price stability. The New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations captured median responses, highlighting how geopolitical tensions directly impact household economic outlooks. While short-term inflation fears spiked, the unchanged five-year forecast indicates consumers still anticipate eventual normalization, despite immediate volatility from global conflicts.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000US Inflation:Shoppers inside the Serramonte Mall in Daly City, California.Near-term inflation expectations jumped in March by the most in a year as consumers anticipated higher gas and food prices with the onset of war in the Middle East, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday.US consumers said they expected an inflation rate of 3.4% over the next 12 months, up 0.4 percentage points from February, according to the median response in the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations. The outlook for inflation in three years rose slightly to 3.1%, and expected inflation in five years remained unchanged at 3%.

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