UK inflation cools markedly in January, boosting odds of Bank of England rate cut

In this articleThe U.K. inflation rate cooled to 3% in January, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).Economists polled by Reuters had expected the consumer price index to fall to 3%, down from 3.4% in the twelve months to December.Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 3.1% in January, down from 3.2% in December. The fall in Inflation, to its lowest annual rate since March 2025, was driven partly by a decrease in petrol prices, the ONS' Chief Economist Grant Fitzner said in comments on X."Airfares were another downward driver this month with prices dropping back following the increase in December. Lower food prices also helped push the rate down, particularly for bread and cereals and meat. These were partially offset by the cost of hotel stays and takeaways," he noted.Sterling was flat against the dollar following the as-expected data, at $1.3562.The data will be closely analysed by the Bank of England as it looks for further signs to confirm its view that inflation will fall close to the central bank's 2% target by April. U.K. jobs and wage data out Tuesday gave the BOE further signs of weakness in the labor market and an easing of inflationary pressures with the unemployment rate rising to 5.2% in December, the highest level in five years. Annual wage growth, a key inflation metric closely watched by the central bank, weakened in the last three months of 2025.Growth data released last week showed the wider slowdown continued, with the economy growing a meager 0.1% in the fourth quarter. We'll get another shot of economic activity in the country this coming Friday when purchasing managers' index (PMI) data is released.Economists expect that the latest batch of data could prompt the BOE to cut its benchmark interest rate, currently at 3.75%, at its next meeting in March. "Sticky inflation has been the Achilles' heel for the UK for a number of years, requiring the Bank of England to keep interest rates restrictive. But it appears that we have finally turned a corner," Zara Nokes, global market analyst at J.P.

Morgan Asset Management, said in emailed comments Wednesday. "Today's data showed a meaningful step down in headline inflation, with broad-based disinflation across sectors. Crucially, this progress should continue with headline inflation likely to fall in touching distance of the 2% target by April," she added. "The recent moderation in wage growth should also help to keep all-important services inflation – which has been a thorn in the Bank of England's side for a number of years – at bay," Nokes said, noting that the BOE likely has room to deliver another couple of 25-basis-point rate cuts before hitting the neutral rate. "Based on the latest string of employment data, I would expect these cuts to be front-loaded," she said.The gloomy picture painted by recent U.K. growth figures and Tuesday's evidence of a lackluster jobs market has increased the likelihood that the BOE will cut rates at the next meeting in March, Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said in emailed comments Tuesday. "It has also increased expectation that rates could reach as low as 3% by the end of the year," Hewson added.Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.© 2026 Versant Media, LLC.

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