Imminent Recession? It's Up To The Fed

James FoordInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(5min)CommentsSummaryThe Federal Reserve's hawkish stance signals few or no rate cuts in 2026, raising recession risks.Core inflation remains elevated, with the Fed revising its PCE outlook to 2.7%, justifying caution on rate cuts.Current economic distress—widening credit spreads, rising unemployment, and lower GDP—suggests a sell-off may precede any Fed easing.I recommend raising cash and waiting for deeper market declines before turning bullish, as the sell-off appears to be in its early stages.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Pragmatic Investor get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » SARINYAPINNGAM/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but delivered what I took as a pretty hawkish message to markets. Based on the dot plot, it seems like we might get one or even no rateThis article was written byJames Foord27.51K FollowersFollowJames Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth.

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