How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired

Saudi ArabiaAdd to myFTGet instant alerts for this topicManage your delivery channels hereRemove from myFTHow MBS’s bet on Iran backfiredSaudi Arabian détente with its regional rival has unravelled as US-Israeli war triggers furious Iranian retaliation Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman © FT montage; Reuters/AFP/Getty ImagesHow MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on x (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on facebook (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on linkedin (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on x (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on facebook (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on linkedin (opens in a new window)How MBS’s bet on Iran backfired on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Ahmed Al Omran in Jeddah and Andrew England in London PublishedMarch 17 2026Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business and the worldIn the space of a few years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman went from warning against “appeasement” of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — “the new Hitler of the Middle East” — to embarking on a historic détente with Tehran.In one of his signature foreign policy moves, Prince Mohammed worked to cool years of hostility between his Sunni kingdom and the Shia theocracy, wagering that engagement was the best way to engender the regional stability needed for his ambitious economic vision.His worst fears have now been realised. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran two weeks ago, the Islamic regime has lashed out repeatedly at Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours, targeting American bases in the kingdom, the American embassy in Riyadh, the huge Ras Tanura refinery and its vast Shaybah oilfield.“It’s the last thing he wanted. He wants stability and order, he doesn’t want missiles and drones flying around,” said Bernard Haykel, a professor of near eastern studies at Princeton University, who speaks with Prince Mohammed. “He didn’t want this at all.”Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.The longer the war goes on, the more it threatens the crown prince’s drive to convince foreign investors to back his raft of megaprojects and to project the kingdom as a trade, tourism and finance hub. Formula 1 has already cancelled its races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain scheduled for April because of the war.So far the kingdom has not been as badly impacted as other Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, which have endured more volleys of Iranian missiles and drones. Access to the Red Sea also means it can avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that has in effect been closed by Iranian attacks, and keep shipping goods and crude.“We remain cautious, obviously, but one needs to mute noise to have a better understanding of what is happening here,” a Saudi official said. “It is almost business as usual.”Yet Amin Nasser, chief executive of the kingdom’s state-owned energy giant Saudi Aramco, last week warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world economy if the war drags on, underscoring Riyadh’s concerns. “This one by far is the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” he said.Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and north Africa at Eurasia Group, said the conflict was a setback to Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030 plan to transform the kingdom’s economy and to lure foreign direct investment. “They were already missing their targets,” he said. “Now they’re also going to have to focus on other things. They’re going to have to reorientate spending to defence. It’s going to be a much longer timeline.”Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.There are few good outcomes for Saudi Arabia or other Gulf states, analysts say.Publicly, Saudi Arabia has condemned Iran and called for de-escalation. Yet Gulf leaders are now caught between wanting the conflict to end and a fear that — if US President Donald Trump abruptly halts his offensive — the war will leave a wounded, emboldened and more hardline Islamic regime in their backyard. A person familiar with Riyadh’s thinking said Saudi Arabia did not want regime change in Iran, but a weakened republic was in the kingdom’s interests. “There is a cost to what’s happening, but to what extent do you want to say: ‘Let’s not stop now. Just give it another push’,” the person said. “You don’t want to end up in no man’s land.”Though Gulf states had worked to prevent a war in the first place, Maksad said some now wanted Trump to “finish the job” — even if “what that means is a whole different question”.“Some are wary about chaos,” he said. “But what it does mean for all is to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to fire missiles and drones at them, so at a minimum diminish Iran’s capacity further.” A Saudi official denied to Al Arabiya a report that Prince Mohammed has pushed Trump to keep hitting Iran.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.A concern if the conflict does not end is that continued fighting could lead to Iranian-backed Houthis, who fired hundreds of drones and missiles at the kingdom after it intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015, joining the conflict. A fragile truce between Riyadh and the Houthis has held since 2022.Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been wary about the threat Iran posed to the region since the 1979 Islamic revolution, viewing it as a malign force across the Middle East. But Riyadh restored diplomatic relations with Iran in a Chinese-brokered deal in 2023 to de-escalate tensions after a seven-year hiatus.The pair kept up regular channels of communication — the crown prince’s brother, defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, met then-supreme leader Khamenei in Tehran last year — during two years of regional conflict triggered by Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel.As tensions between the US and Iran rose in recent months, Prince Mohammed sought to keep the kingdom out of any conflict, telling Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in January that Riyadh would not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military action.Prince Khalid bin Salman, centre, Prince Mohammed’s brother and the Saudi defence minister © Iranian Army Office/AFP/Getty ImagesIt was to little avail, as the Islamic republic, fighting what it considers an existential battle, attacked Gulf states in a strategy designed to raise the cost to the US and its allies.“Prince Mohammed was hoping against hope that Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be attacked,” Haykel said. “The Iranians also signalled to him that, ‘If we are existentially threatened it’s going to be a scorched-earth policy, we’re going to burn the whole region down to make the Americans pay a very heavy price.’ And that’s exactly what they are doing.”Haykel added that Riyadh was engaging nuclear-armed Pakistan, with which it signed a mutual defence pact in September, and China, the main buyer of Saudi and Iranian oil, to pressure Tehran to de-escalate with the kingdom.Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar this month warned his Iranian counterpart not to attack Saudi Arabia, citing the defence pact with Riyadh. Dar credited this with helping to keep “missile or drone attacks to a minimum”, but daily strikes have continued.Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base in al-Kharj, which hosts American forces, has been a regular target of Iranian fire, with one US soldier killed. Two foreign workers have also been killed in attacks.The attacks have led to speculation about whether Riyadh could ultimately open its airspace to the US offensive operations, or even join the conflict if there is a major attack on its oil facilities — like when a missile and drone assault blamed on Iran temporarily knocked out half the kingdom’s crude output in 2019.There was still communication between Riyadh and Tehran, but through ambassadors rather than a higher level, a person familiar with the matter said. “The illusion has been eliminated that a good working relationship with Iran could be developed,” the person said.There was also annoyance with the Trump administration and Israel for drawing Saudi Arabia into a war that Gulf states warned would have severe consequences for the region, the person said.“There is frustration over the fact that basically the United States is here to not only make the Gulf states live with the ramifications of their war, but they’re doing [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s war,” said Aziz Alghashian, a lecturer of international relations at Riyadh’s Naif Arab University for Security Sciences.Prince Mohammed and US President Donald Trump at the White House in November © Anna Rose Layden/BloombergThe person familiar with the matter said Riyadh was “not unhappy” with the US’s defence support, adding that the kingdom was receiving American missile interceptors “to the degree that’s possible” considering high demand from other Gulf states and Israel.Washington and Riyadh signed a defence pact when Trump hosted Prince Mohammed at the White House in November.Yet despite the bonhomie between the two leaders, which stretches back to the US president’s first term, the conflict has underscored Riyadh’s reasons to be wary of Trump’s transactional style and unpredictability.“They all knew he’s a transactional, unpredictable person,” Haykel said. “Are they happy about that, no? But what can they do? He’s the American president.”Satellite image visualisation by Aditi Bhandari, data visualisation by Alan Smith and cartography by Allysa HonraReuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments section Follow the topics in this article Middle East war Add to myFT Middle Eastern politics & society Add to myFT US foreign policy Add to myFT Saudi Arabia Add to myFT Mohammed bin Salman Al-Saud Add to myFT Comments