How Long Before an Oil Crisis?

Escalating U.S. strikes on Iran risk triggering a global oil crisis, warns Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, as prolonged conflict threatens to disrupt critical Middle Eastern supply routes and spike energy prices by mid-2026. The Pentagon confirmed intensified airstrikes against Iran, raising fears of retaliatory attacks on oil infrastructure, including Strait of Hormuz blockades that could choke 20% of global oil shipments overnight. President Trump partially eased oil sanctions on Iran, a tactical move to stabilize markets, but analysts warn this may embolden Tehran while failing to prevent long-term supply shocks if hostilities persist. Former Israeli leadership reiterated goals to "neutralize Iran’s threat," signaling regional allies may escalate involvement, further destabilizing oil-dependent economies already facing inflation and market volatility. Financial experts, including Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray, predict a post-war transaction surge but warn of immediate risks: Yardeni Research flags potential sharp selloffs if oil prices surge above $120 per barrel.