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On Holding: Don't Sweat The Soft Initial 2026 Outlook, Buy As Product Scope Expands

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The Swiss sportswear company’s stock dipped ~30% from its May 2025 peak after conservative FY26 guidance, but analysts argue the pullback presents a buying opportunity given its growth trajectory. FY26 projections include 23% revenue growth and 18.5–19.0% adjusted EBITDA margins, which analysts call conservative based on the company’s history of outperforming its own forecasts. Wall Street expects CHF 3.75B in FY26 sales—higher than the company’s CHF 3.44B guidance—but past execution suggests potential upside, reinforcing confidence in long-term expansion. Trading at 16x EV/FY26 adjusted EBITDA with over 30% growth, the valuation is deemed attractive, blending reasonable pricing with strong growth prospects amid broader market volatility. The analyst, holding a long position, cites product expansion and historical resilience as key reasons to overlook short-term bearish sentiment and capitalize on the current discount.
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Gary Alexander33.42K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryOn Holding remains a buy despite a post-earnings dip and bearish sentiment, with shares down ~30% from last May’s peak.ONON’s FY26 guidance calls for at least 23% revenue growth and 18.5–19.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, both viewed as conservative based on past outperformance.Wall Street’s expectations for CHF 3.75B in FY26 sales exceed ONON’s CHF 3.44B outlook, but guidance language and historical execution suggest upside potential.At 16x EV/FY26 adjusted EBITDA and >30% growth, ONON offers growth at a reasonable price; the current dip is a buying opportunity.FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images Today, it seems that bad news is lurking in every corner of the stock market. As the Q4 earnings season wears on, investors are looking for any and all reasons to dump stocks amid rising geopolitical complications and aThis article was written byGary Alexander33.42K FollowersFollowWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017. He has been quoted in many web publications and his articles are syndicated to company pages in popular trading apps like Robinhood.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ONON either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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