Hess Midstream: Iran Conflict Reduces Bakken Production Fears

Seeking Profits5.36K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryHess Midstream remains a "Strong Buy," offering an 8% yield and 5%+ distribution growth, with fair value seen near $45.HESM’s revenue is protected by long-term, inflation-linked fee contracts and minimum volume commitments, mitigating commodity price risk through at least 2028.Lower capex and disciplined capital allocation are driving higher free cash flow, supporting both buybacks and leverage reduction toward 2.75x.Fears of HESM as a melting ice cube are overdone, with stable Bakken production and potential for continued dividend growth beyond 2028. grandriver/iStock via Getty Images Shares of Hess Midstream (HESM) have been a poor performer over the past year, losing about 11% of their value (though the stock does pay an ~8% dividend yield). Shares were hit hard during the second half of 2025 as concerns grew about Chevron (This article was written bySeeking Profits5.36K FollowersFollowOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a question for an article, just let me know!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HESM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.