Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war

Middle Eastern economyAdd to myFTGet instant alerts for this topicManage your delivery channels hereRemove from myFTGulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of warMillions of barrels of crude oil remain trapped by shutdown of the Strait of HormuzSmoke billows from Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery after it was targeted in an Iranian drone strike this month © Stringer/ReutersGulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on x (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on facebook (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on linkedin (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on x (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on facebook (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on linkedin (opens in a new window)Gulf states lose $15bn in energy revenues since start of war on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Ryohtaroh Satoh in LondonPublishedMarch 13 2026Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.Gulf oil producers have lost an estimated $15.1bn in energy revenues since the start of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with millions of barrels of crude trapped by the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.According to estimates by commodities analytics firm Kpler, the strait typically carries about $1.2bn worth of crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas each day, based on average prices and volumes in 2025.Since the conflict escalated on February 28, traffic through the critical shipping route has largely stopped, with Iran attacking vessels and insurance premiums soaring.The total lost revenue lays bare the financial cost of the war for Gulf states that are heavily reliant on commodity sales to fund their governments.The waterway now sees only “negligible” flows compared with prewar levels, said Florian Gruenberger of Kpler. Among the halted shipments, crude oil accounted for the largest share, representing 71 per cent of the value.Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil exporter, has lost out the most, with the kingdom estimated to have missed out on $4.5bn since the war started according to Wood Mackenzie, though the kingdom is planning to significantly raise exports from the Red Sea in the coming days.Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, said Iraq was among the most exposed as it relies on oil production for 90 per cent of government revenues.“Kuwait and Qatar are also highly exposed, but both can call on large sovereign wealth funds to buffer the short-term impact,” he added.Show video infoShow video descriptionVideo descriptionA drone strike forced the shutdown of Saudi Aramco's huge Ras Tanura refinery on March 2A drone strike forced the shutdown of Saudi Aramco's huge Ras Tanura refinery on March 2 © ReutersAt least $10.7bn worth of crude, refined oil products and LNG cargoes remained stranded inside the Strait of Hormuz, loaded but unable to reach their destinations, Kpler said. Some of the cargoes had already been sold under prewar long-term contracts, meaning they may still generate revenue, depending on the payment timing, which is typically 15 to 30 days after loading.The impact of the disruption may vary between producers. Antoine Halff, co-founder of satellite analytics company Kayrros, said Saudi Arabia may be better positioned to absorb the disruption than Iraq, which he expects to suffer more severe losses. Saudi Arabia also holds oil in overseas storage facilities and could continue supplying customers for a period, while also benefiting from higher prices that may partly offset lost export revenue, Halff said. Ultimately, he added, it is motorists and other end consumers who are likely to bear the brunt of the price impact.While state-backed Saudi Aramco has said it could reroute about 70 per cent of crude shipments from its eastern oilfields to the Red Sea through its east-west pipeline, analysts warn the system has never operated at that level of capacity. Wood Mackenzie estimates that Gulf oil producers — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain — have collectively deferred sales and tax revenue of $13.3bn for oil.Wood Mackenzie estimates that QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-owned energy company, had lost about $571mn in revenue by Wednesday after halting production on March 2, excluding any losses from delays to planned expansions or new plants.Reuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments section Follow the topics in this article Middle East war Add to myFT Middle Eastern companies Add to myFT Oil & Gas industry Add to myFT Middle Eastern economy Add to myFT Saudi Arabia Add to myFT Comments