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Greggs: Macro Outlook Worsens, But Shares Remain Cheap

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⚡ Quantum Brief
UK bakery chain Greggs faces worsening macroeconomic pressures, including weak consumer sentiment, persistent cost inflation, and spillover effects from the Middle East conflict, further straining its 2026 outlook. Capital expenditures peaked in 2025, with a projected £90 million reduction this year and deeper cuts in 2027, boosting free cash flow and easing financial pressure amid operational challenges. Despite headwinds, Greggs maintains its UK market share, demonstrating resilience in a competitive quick-service sector while rivals struggle with similar economic constraints. Shares trade at an attractive valuation, with a trailing P/E ratio below 13, potentially appealing to value investors despite its status as one of the London Stock Exchange’s most shorted stocks. Analysts highlight long-term potential, citing sustainable earnings quality and dividend prospects, though near-term risks persist from macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical tensions.
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Mark Dockray2.22K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryGreggs plc remains challenged by weak U.K. consumer sentiment and cost inflation, and now faces the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East.On the plus side, CapEx peaked in 2025 and should decrease by £90 million this year and more in 2027. This will be a tailwind to free cash flow.Despite macro headwinds, Greggs isn't losing market share, and the valuation is attractive with shares trading on a trailing P/E ratio of less than 13. coldsnowstorm/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images It's easy to see why bakery chain Greggs plc (OTCPK:GGGSF)(OTCPK:GGGSY) is one of the most shorted companies on the London Stock Exchange. As one of the U.K.'s leading quick-service restaurant firms, theThis article was written byMark Dockray2.22K FollowersFollowI like to take a long term, buy-and-hold approach to investing, with a bias toward stocks that can sustainably post high quality earnings. Mostly found in the dividend and income section. Blog about various US/Canadian stocks at 'The Compound Investor', and predominantly UK names on 'The UK Income Investor'.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GGGSY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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