Goldman Warns on Copper as Iran War Threatens Global Economy

Copper is vulnerable to further declines if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned, as metals markets brace for President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree a deal or face sweeping attacks on civilian infrastructure.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Copper is vulnerable to further declines if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned, as metals markets brace for President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree a deal or face sweeping attacks on civilian infrastructure.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.“We see the near-term risks as skewed to the downside if strait flows remain disrupted for longer than our base case, which would keep energy prices higher for longer and likely slow global economic growth,” analysts including Aurelia Waltham said in a note.Most base metals have come under growing pressure in the past month, as soaring oil and gas prices threaten to stifle economic growth and erode demand for industrial commodities. There’s intense uncertainty across markets on Tuesday as investors weigh Trump’s escalating threats against Tehran.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.While Goldman’s base case is for the strait to begin re-opening from mid-April, the analysts said that copper was already trading well above its estimated fair value of about $11,100 a ton. Prices have already fallen about 7% since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.Copper is still getting support from a tight market outside the US and the prospect of widespread strategic stockpiling, the analysts said. But those factors could become less decisive in the event of the bank’s “severely adverse” scenario for the global economy, they added.“The copper price is not being supported at the current level by fundamentals, making it vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk,” they wrote. The bank trimmed its base-case forecast for copper this year to an average of $12,650 a ton, down from $12,850. The metal has averaged about $12,850 a ton so far this year.Copper was up 0.3% at $12,400 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 11:25 a.m. in Shanghai, while other metals were mixed.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4© 2026 Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.You can manage saved articles in your account.and save up to 100 articles!You can manage your saved articles in your account and clicking the X located at the bottom right of the article.