Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecasts on Largest-Ever Supply Shock

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 due to the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for global crude markets.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 due to the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for global crude markets.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Brent is expected to average $85 a barrel in 2026, up from an earlier forecast of $77, analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note. The full-year outlook for West Texas Intermediate was hiked to $79 from $72, they said.The revisions rested in part on an assumption that flows through Hormuz would remain at only 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a gradual one-month recovery, they said in the note dated March 22.Energy markets have been pitched into turmoil by the US-Israeli war with Iran, with hostilities now entering a fourth week with no sign of resolution.

President Donald Trump handed Iran a two-day ultimatum to reopen Hormuz — which connects the Persian Gulf to global markets — or see its power plants bombed. Tehran threatened reprisals.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.“The largest oil supply shock ever will likely lead policymakers and markets to recognize the structural risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity in the Middle East and from the vulnerability of energy infrastructure,” the Goldman analysts wrote.On the physical side, while the shock was leading to tightness in Asia, commercial crude stocks in American and European OECD countries were still rising, as global supply exceeded demand before the war, they added.Crude-production losses in the Middle East will rise from 11 million barrels a day today to a 17-million-barrel-a-day peak, assuming a gradual four-week full recovery after full reopening, the analysts said. That would result in cumulative losses of just over 800 million barrels, they said.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4© 2026 Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.You can manage saved articles in your account.and save up to 100 articles!You can manage your saved articles in your account and clicking the X located at the bottom right of the article.