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Goldman Flags $100-Plus Brent If Hormuz Shut for Another Month

Jake Lloyd-Smith
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could exceed $100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, citing prolonged supply disruptions. Analysts led by Daan Struyven highlight a "fluid" geopolitical situation amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, with risks heavily skewed toward higher oil prices. US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks underscore the truce’s instability, raising concerns about renewed hostilities and extended shipping blockades in the critical Hormuz chokepoint. The forecast assumes sustained supply constraints, with prolonged closures potentially triggering broader energy market volatility and economic ripple effects globally. Goldman’s outlook reflects heightened geopolitical risk premiums, emphasizing upside price pressures despite the temporary diplomatic pause.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Brent crude is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed for another month, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.“The situation remains fluid,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note following the start of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, noting comments from US Vice President JD Vance that the truce was fragile. “We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside.”

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