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The Final Push Toward A Deal And Why I'm Now Fully Invested

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
A contrarian investor shifted to full market exposure on April 16, deploying 19% cash reserves amid perceived easing Middle East tensions, citing "risk-on" conditions despite lingering downside risks. The Strait of Hormuz partially reopened April 17, resuming commercial traffic under Iranian coordination, though U.S. blockades on Iran-bound ships remain active, signaling cautious progress in regional stability. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks reportedly advanced, with potential Iranian confirmation seen as a critical catalyst for a broader deal, marking the most significant diplomatic development in weeks. An April 16 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, though fragile, temporarily improved market sentiment, though Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon with strong U.S. enforcement backing. The investor’s move reflects a bet on geopolitical de-escalation, despite acknowledging volatility, with a 3-24 month horizon targeting undervalued assets tied to non-recurrent regional sell-offs.
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Deep Value Investing12.31K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryIt's my view that we may be heading into the final sprint of the Middle East crisis.The April 17 Hormuz reopening matters because commercial traffic resumed, though passage still requires Iranian coordination, safe-lane limits remain, and the U.S. blockade of Iran-bound traffic is still active.I believe the most important headline today is the reported progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. If Iran confirms it, that would materially improve the odds of a broader deal.The April 16 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire helped shift market tone, though I still see it as fragile, with Israel remaining inside southern Lebanon and the U.S. heavily backing enforcement.Overall, I put my risk-on hat back on and deployed the remaining 19% cash position I had. I’m heading into the talks fully invested, mindful that the downside risk is not zero. rarrarorro/iStock via Getty Images Happy Friday, everyone! I hope it's a green day in your portfolio as well. As we've seen in the past few days, markets do not wait for certainty, and the past few days in the Middle East haveThis article was written byDeep Value Investing12.31K FollowersFollowSmall deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well, you can land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off. From time to time, I buy shares, mostly to not be categorized as a degen by my fellow investor friends, therefore the 50%-50% allocation. My timeframe tends to be between 3-24 months.I like stocks that have experienced a recent sell-off due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at the new lower price. This is how I often screen through thousands of stocks, mainly in the US, although I may own shares in banana republics. I use fundamental analysis to check the health of companies that pass through my screening process, their leverage, and then compare their financial ratios with the sector, and industry median and average. I also do professional background checks of each insider who purchased shares after the recent sell-off. I use technical analysis to optimize the entry and exit points of my positions. I mainly use multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts. From time to time I draw trend lines, taken for granted, in multicolor patterns. Note: I tried to keep my introduction as real, and authentic as possible. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS, unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority.Thanks for reading my introduction!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SPY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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