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Fault Lines And Flashpoints: Navigating Credit Markets Through A Geopolitical Shock

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Calamos Investments expects Middle East tensions to stabilize within months, forecasting energy price declines by mid-2026 and a Fed rate cut in late 2026 as inflation pressures ease. Defensive credit strategies shielded Calamos Fixed Income funds from recent volatility, particularly in lower-rated bonds, as spreads widened amid geopolitical uncertainty. The firm anticipates a steeper yield curve and maintains selective bond exposure, prioritizing quality amid elevated short-term risks in credit markets. Early 2026’s market optimism faded as geopolitical shocks disrupted stability, forcing investors to reassess risk amid shifting macroeconomic and energy price dynamics. Portfolio positioning reflects caution, with a focus on high-grade securities and flexible duration strategies to navigate potential Fed policy shifts and lingering geopolitical risks.
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Calamos Investments568 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryOur base case is that turmoil in the Middle East resolves or stabilizes within a couple of months, energy prices retreat by mid-year, and the Fed resumes easing in the back half of 2026.The defensive credit positioning we established over prior quarters proved advantageous, helping to insulate the Calamos Fixed Income funds from the widening at the lower end of the ratings spectrum.Fund positioning reflects our view that the yield curve will continue to steepen, and we remain highly selective in an environment of elevated near-term risks. primeimages/E+ via Getty Images By Matt Freund, CFA, Christian Brobst, and Chuck Carmody, CFA So much has happened in the past month that investors may have forgotten how constructive the markets were at the beginning of the year. 2026 beganThis article was written byCalamos Investments568 FollowersFollowCalamos Investments is a diversified global investment firm offering innovative investment strategies including U.S. growth equity, global equity, convertible, multi-asset and alternatives. The firm offers strategies through separately managed portfolios, mutual funds, closed-end funds, private funds, an exchange traded fund and UCITS funds. Clients include major corporations, pension funds, endowments, foundations and individuals, as well as the financial advisors and consultants who serve them. Headquartered in the Chicago metropolitan area, the firm also has offices in London, New York and San Francisco. For more information, please visit www.calamos.com.

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