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Europe Bond Market Doubts Grow Over Recovery From War Selloff

Alice Gledhill
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European bond markets face prolonged instability after a Middle East war-triggered selloff, with analysts warning recovery will lag even if hostilities end quickly. Investor confidence remains fragile amid geopolitical uncertainty. Sovereign debt across Europe declined sharply again on Thursday, reversing brief rallies tied to de-escalation hopes. Persistent volatility reflects deep skepticism about lasting market stabilization without concrete conflict resolution. Fears of a potential US ground invasion in the region are amplifying selloff pressures, overshadowing intermittent optimism. Bond yields rose as traders priced in prolonged risk, dismissing short-term diplomatic progress as insufficient. Market players cite structural shifts in risk appetite, with war-induced inflation and supply chain disruptions likely to outlast any ceasefire. Central banks may delay rate cuts, further straining debt markets already under pressure. The selloff’s ripple effects extend beyond Europe, signaling broader global bond market vulnerability to prolonged geopolitical shocks. Analysts stress that even a swift conflict end won’t restore pre-war stability conditions.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Europe’s bonds will struggle to bounce back from a sharp selloff triggered by the war in the Middle East, even if the conflict comes to a swift conclusion, according to market players.While bonds have staged intermittent rallies on optimism that hostilities might ease, the sector remains highly volatile. Sovereign debt across Europe fell again Thursday, with scant signs of progress in de-escalating the conflict and fears of a ground invasion by US troops.

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