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Energy Markets Brace For A Prolonged Supply Disruption

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Global energy markets face extended disruptions as Persian Gulf oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain halted, with no signs of diplomatic de-escalation or resumed shipments. Commodity traders are recalibrating price models to account for prolonged supply shortages, driving volatility in oil and gas futures as analysts revise timelines for normalization. ING’s updated scenarios project sustained upward pressure on crude prices, with Brent potentially exceeding $120/barrel if blockades persist beyond Q2 2026. Geopolitical tensions and attacks on shipping routes have forced rerouting, increasing transit costs and delaying deliveries, further tightening global supply chains. Refineries and LNG terminals are activating contingency plans, but infrastructure constraints limit short-term alternatives, heightening risks of regional fuel shortages.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.24K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryThere are few signs of de-escalation or a resumption in energy flows from the Persian Gulf.The market is having to reprice the duration of ongoing supply disruptions.We have updated our scenarios for oil and gas markets. bymuratdeniz/iStock via Getty Images By Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy Signs point to a more prolonged disruption Energy markets are having to continuously price in a more prolonged disruption to oil and gas flows through the Strait ofThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.24K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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