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Emerging FX Index Heads to Worst Day Since 2023 on Iran Risks

Nicolle Yapur, Andras Gergely, Prima Wirayani
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Emerging-market currencies are facing their steepest decline since 2023, with MSCI’s total return gauge dropping 0.9% as Middle East conflict fears escalate and investors flee risk assets. Safe-haven demand surged, driving the U.S. dollar and gold higher while traders abandoned developing-nation currencies amid geopolitical uncertainty tied to Iran tensions. Central banks in Indonesia, Turkey, and India intervened to stabilize their currencies, deploying reserves or policy tools to counter sharp depreciation pressures. Oil and natural gas price spikes prompted traders to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts in Eastern Europe, reflecting inflation concerns tied to energy market volatility. The selloff underscores how emerging markets remain vulnerable to external shocks, with conflict-driven risk aversion overriding local economic fundamentals.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000An index tracking emerging-market currencies is heading to its worst drop in three years as traders dump risk assets amid fears of a prolonged military conflict in the Middle East.An MSCI total return gauge of developing nation currencies declined 0.9%, while the greenback and gold jumped as investors piled into safe haven assets. Central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and IndiaBloomberg Terminal had to intervene to anchor their currencies. Traders curbed bets on interest rate cuts in eastern Europe due to a spike in oil and natural gas prices.

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Source: Bloomberg Markets

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