Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered

Ask an Expert Indian economyAdd to myFTGet instant alerts for this topicManage your delivery channels hereRemove from myFTDid India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answeredIndia Business Briefing writer Veena Venugopal and South Asia correspondent Andres Schipani replied to reader questionsDid India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on x (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on facebook (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on linkedin (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on x (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on facebook (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on linkedin (opens in a new window)Did India get a good trade deal with the US? You asked, we answered on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Veena Venugopal and Andres SchipaniPublishedFebruary 19 2026UpdatedFebruary 27 2026Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.The US and India announced a framework for an interim trade agreement in February, following stalled negotiations between Narendra Modi’s government and the Trump administration. India strove to protect its politically sensitive foodgrain and dairy markets, but the Asian giant agreed to open its economy to imports of most US industrial goods and some food products.Was this a capitulation or a mutually beneficial opportunity? And what does this say about the strength of Modi’s government? Will geopolitical tensions come in the way of economic development?Andres Schipani, the FT’s South Asia correspondent, and Veena Venugopal, the writer of our India Business Briefing newsletter replied to your questions. The Ask an Expert session is now closed, but you can read the questions and answers below in full.Please visit the Ask an Expert page for our next Q&A.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: That's all we have time for today. Thank you FT readers for your questions, as well as Veena and Andres for your thoughtful responses. We'll be back with another Ask an Expert next week. Visit www.ft.com/ask-an-expert.Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Thank you for some sharp questions.Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: Thank you for some great questions. This was fun!Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: Will this trade deal impact Modi's electoral chances at the next election?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Three years is an eternity in politics — especially in India . . . Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: This is a great question. Modi has demonstrated the ability to take unpleasant decisions in the middle of his term, so that by the time elections come around, this is forgotten. Having said that, it'd depend on how much of India's agri sector gets opened. Farmers are a big political bloc, and they have demonstrated the tenacity for long protests. So if they do agitate long and hard, it'd have an impact on Modi's electoral chances. The other, big factor of course is whether the opposition parties will be able to organise themselves and offer a compelling proposition.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: UnaffectedQuestion: What would FT editors cover rather than the India US trade deal, if they had an option, or the deal did not exist?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: I second that!Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: Not cricket! :)Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: XismynameQuestion: By how much the GDP per capita of India likely to go up or down if this trade deal is implemented meeting 100% of its’ scope and timelines?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: Let me try and answer this from the other side. Analyst projection was that the economy would lose 0.8 per cent GDP because of tariffs, that is if there was no deal. India's chief economic advisor put this at 0.3-0.5%.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: How resilient is the Indian economy to the fluctuating US trade related decisions?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Just to add to Veena's points, India is far less exposed to tariff turmoil than, say, its more trade-dependent Asian peers, thanks to an enormous domestic market.

Prime Minister Modi has hailed the importance of Atmanirbhar Bharat, or “self-reliant India”. The sizeable domestic market is certainly a relief. The issue is that some of the industries that are worst-affected by tariffs are amongst India’s biggest employers — textiles, jewellery, seafoods.Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: The Indian economy seems quite resilient. Official numbers announced an hour ago show that India's GDP grew 7.8% this last quarter; analyst expectation was 7.2%. This adds to the higher than expected growth recorded in the last quarter too. Considering that reciprocal tariffs kicked in in August 2025, so far, the Indian economy is doing well despite the tariffs. The stress is visible in some sectors — textiles, garments, precious stones, etc. But overall, the economy is doing well.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: @RajLQuestion: Are we seeing the ‘wins’ for India get a megaphone treatment by the govt and the ‘losses’ get hidden? What’s your take on how balanced has the Indian govt been about communication of the risk vs reward from this deal?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: On the whole, not very balanced. I think it's the government's job to sell the deal in India and so they are going to pick and choose, for sure. We will have to wait for the final deal to be unveiled before we can say more though.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: TQuestion: India's growth announcement today came with an updated framework for measuring GDP, which probably boosted numbers. How should this affect how we see the reliability of Indian data, and does it affect the oft-heard claim that it will surpass Japan's economy this year?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Capital Economics said that rebased data released today shows that the Indian economy, in nominal terms, is smaller than previously thought. But it does show a fast pace of real GDP growth. Even before today, some experts have questioned whether India's GDP data was an accurate gauge of the economy’s health. And the government had already dismissed suggestions that the official statistics were flattering the economy’s performance.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: How will current Geo-politics effect current and upcoming B schools (MBA/MMS) grads in India in different domains (IT, Sales, Operations etc)?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: This is a great question. Overall, for students who are entering the workforce in the next few years, finding jobs abroad is certainly going to be more difficult. This includes students who are currently studying abroad. Despite the trade deals with the UK and EU for example, India has not been able to expand visa options for Indian students significantly. For those looking to work in India, the global AI disruption will have an impact on jobs here as well. Technology company leaders I spoke with say the key for hiring will be candidates' ability to work with AI. There will have to be substantial reskilling and upskilling that is required. There is some expansion in manufacturing jobs because of the PLI schemes.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: Mohit Question: What will be the impact on the agreed trade deal with India now that US has imposed an additional 10% blanket tariff on all countries after the Supreme Court ruling?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: You've put your finger on the dilemma India faces at the moment. Trump has even raised the tariff to 15 per cent now. That alone shows that things can change any minute. So it’s still unclear — except from the fact that the US has become quite an unreliable trade partner under Trump. Many exporters lack much clarity on what the future holds. Some argue it would make sense for India to carefully play hardball and try to take advantage of Trump's legal travails in the US. Yesterday, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick met his Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal, during an unscheduled “brief stop” in New Delhi. Goyal shared a photo after meeting Lutnick, saying they had “very fruitful discussions to expand our trade and economic partnership.” This happened after a team of Indian negotiators postponed a scheduled visit to Washington to finalise the interim deal last week.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: UnaffectedQuestion: India’s LOP has been talking about Indian Data that should have been an important element of the negotiations. What is FT’s view on this?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: My view is that India should ring fence data. It is an important asset. We don't know what the fine print in the deal is regarding data. Tech leaders that I spoke with at Nasscom earlier this week allude to the fact that large tech companies are setting up data centres in India because local data is most optimally processed locally. So that is one big incentive for data localisation.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: Ajish Jimmy GeorgeQuestion: Will the trade deals have a detrimental impact on Indian farmers, as the opposition claims?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Opposition parties led by the Indian National Congress have indeed staged protests outside the parliament saying the “US deal will destroy farmers”, and accused the government of “surrendering” farmers' interest. This is especially sensitive as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to protect farmers. Trade minister Piyush Goyal said most of India's farm products were kept out of the trade arrangement with the US, that farmers' interests had been protected and accused opposition parties of misleading farmers and said key items such as dairy, poultry, rice, wheat and several fruits and vegetables were outside the deal. But we don’t have the deal's fine print yet so many farmers are growing increasingly anxious.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: LumenatiQuestion: Is the hugely touted deal not a 360 degrees complete reversal of India’s stance of protecting its agricultural sector?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: As it did in previous trade deals, Australia and the UK, for example, the Indian government says it is ringfencing its sensitive sectors, especially dairy and some foodgrains, which employ tens of millions of people. But farmers argue they still don’t know the extent of such ringfencing in the case of the US deal. Washington only said India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on “a wide range of US food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine and spirits, and additional products”. Yet the devil will likely be in the details, once they are known.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: SaywattQuestion: With the US supreme court striking down the tariffs shouldn't India be pausing and not getting into any discussions before understanding the full implications?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: Yes, that is what India is doing. A delegation that was supposed to be in Washington on Monday did not go. Both sides are taking the time to study the Supreme Court ruling. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick was in New Delhi yesterday (Feb 26) on what was described as an “unscheduled trip”. He met commerce minister Piyush Goyal and they had a “highly productive” meeting. My guess is that the two countries are figuring out a way to proceed with negotiations after the supreme court ruling.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: Is a $500B purchase commitment over 5 years realistic, or is this a headline number designed to satisfy Trump's domestic audience? Who enforces it, and what happens if India falls short?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: The joint statement issued by the two countries said India “intends” to buy $500bn of US goods — which does not sound like a binding commitment to me . . . Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: The Big GripperQuestion: Is the real loser in this deal the EU? How does the EU's market access now compare to that of US exporters?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: That's hard to say. We don't know the details of the US deal since it's not been published so far. India opened the market for things like fine wines, fisheries, etc to the EU. If these same terms are extended to the US, then there will be tougher competition. But it is hard to predict at the moment.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: Farmer unions called for a strike Feb 12 against this deal, and reports said there were demonstrations of “thousands”. “Thousands” is a small turnout! How substantial and how organized is the opposition to this deal, and is the opposition likely to be sustained?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: Earlier we spoke to a coalition of dozens of Indian farmers’ unions who said they are “preparing for a long haul of struggle”. They are rallying others to pressure Modi to not sign the trade deal with the US and to sack trade minister Piyush Goyal. Farmers’ unions, both independent and those affiliated to the opposition parties, have started mobilising support on the ground and plan to corner the government when Parliament session resumes on March 9. Those from Punjab said they were rallying “tens of thousands of farmers”. The last time Indian farmers, also mainly from Punjab, descended on New Delhi in 2020, they dealt Modi a political blow, forcing him to backtrack on agricultural reforms. How effective it would be, or how permissive the government would be this time, it’s hard to say at this point. But there’s surely discontent amongst farmers. The opposition to the US pacts shows that trade liberalisation remains fraught with political difficulty in India.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: RahoolQuestion: The world of tariffs is complex, with countless variables — country of origin, product category, components, bilateral agreements, exemptions and trade deals. Add to that sudden and unpredictable Trump announcements. Do we have the institutional framework & IT infrastructure to manage this?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: We do have the institutional framework and IT infrastructure. What the unpredictable announcements don't help with is production planning, raw material acquisition, etc by exporters. I spoke to a few of them last week, and they were really upset because they were giving a lot of discounts to their customers since August 2025 in order to hold on to them until a deal was signed. With an interim agreement, they thought they could now move forward. But the SCOTUS order changed things again. So, yes, the unpredictability and the constantly moving goal posts are very frustrating for exporters but not a systemically significant issue for India.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: UnaffectedQuestion: Deal was signed with Trump, not the US! Has no sanctity as Trump will say/do whatever crosses his mind. For India, having/not having the deal is the same, except something immediately transactional. No + or -. At best some geopolitical benefit or a stake in the ground for future negotiations?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: In response to Trump’s volatility, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been deepening ties with a range of middle powers that include Japan, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union. This is seen as a drive to de-risk from the US, a strategy many foreign partners, including Brazil — President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was here last week — and Canada — Prime Minister Mark Carney landed in India today — are matching. India and Brazil want to deepen an agreement between New Delhi and the Mercosur bloc. India and Canada have also agreed to resume talks on a free trade agreement, which were suspended during their diplomatic crisis three years ago.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: Is there a major risk that the US will impose tariffs on IT services delivered by India, to “motivate” big tech to invest in the US workforce?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: Is there a risk that services, especially IT services, will be tariffed? Yes, in that this is an unpredictable US administration. Is there a major risk? I'd say, no. I think the noise around H1B visas will ebb and flow. There is no rhetoric currently on other aspects, such as moving work to India. Therefore my guess is that the political narrative around “immigration” will be about restricting visas and not additional tariffs on Indian companies so that they invest in the US workforce.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: Careful ObserverQuestion: Will Indian refiners really stop importing from Russia? Rosneft owns Nayara Energy Ltd — will Nayara shut down, or otherwise how will Nayara obtain oil except from Russia?Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: To stop importing Russian oil altogether would be very, very hard for India. So far, the Indian government has neither confirmed nor denied any commitment to halt imports of Russian crude, despite references in the recent US executive order. At this stage, there is no official policy directive mandating a cessation of Russian crude purchases. Yes, Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.1 million barrels per day (mbd) in February, easing toward roughly 800,000-1 mbd in March, down from about 2 mbd earlier. Insiders expect Russia’s share in India’s crude slate to gradually stabilise to a lower range. I was chatting to Sumit Ritolia, a top analyst at ship tracking data Kpler who sees signs of a more pragmatic understanding between the US and India, one that effectively allows India to continue importing “baseload” volumes of Russian crude, rather than pushing for a complete halt. Essentially, India can maintain Russian volumes needed to support some refinery operations and domestic fuel supply — while increasing purchases of US and Venezuelan crude — but it would avoid materially increasing purchases beyond that baseline. As for Nayara, the refinery is already sanctioned by the EU and UK — interestingly, it has not been directly sanctioned by the US, its owner, Rosneft is — which hampers its access to non-sanctioned and “clean” crude barrels. So Russian crude remains the most viable — and in many cases the only accessible — feedstock that allows Nayara refinery to operate.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Question asked by: AnonymousQuestion: Given the turbulent nature of current trade policies of USA, weaponizing tariffs and legality of these tariffs themselves, does it really make sense for any country, let alone India, to get into any kind of trade agreement? The only reason I can think of is optics, or is it?Answered by: Veena VenugopalAnswer: To add to this, I also think there are other aspects of the relationship between the two countries that are important to consider. Buying military equipment comes immediately to mind. Also, the US is an important factor in the security structures in India’s neighbourhood. These considerations also feed into the deal. To not have a deal will make negotiations on some of these issues tricky as well.Answered by: Andres SchipaniAnswer: The deal with the US, imperfect or not, should accelerate the integration of India into the global trading economy. So I think it’s about more than just optics. The US is still India's largest single-country trading partner. It’s also about Modi, who has pursued a very active trade agenda since taking office in 2014. But Trump’s move to jack up tariffs on India’s exports to 50 per cent to penalise New Delhi for continuing to buy Russian oil spurred him to go after tariff-busting deals, including with the EU. It’s also about legacy. The deals with the EU and the US marked quite a shift, one may argue, even at a cost, for one of the world’s most protectionist economies, which has guarded its domestic markets since independence in 1947. These two deals follow smaller agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Australia in 2022, the European Free Trade Association in 2024, and the UK and New Zealand last year. So there’s a real push. Still, overall, India’s trade liberalisation will not happen overnight.Reuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments section Follow the topics in this article Indian business & finance Add to myFT Global trade Add to myFT Indian economy Add to myFT Narendra Modi Add to myFT Ask an Expert Add to myFT CommentsComments have not been enabled for this article.