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Diamond Hill Intermediate Bond Strategy Q4 2025 Commentary

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⚡ Quantum Brief
The Bloomberg US Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index delivered a 1.35% return in Q4 2025, capping its best annual performance (7.45%) since 2002, driven by Fed rate cuts and easing inflation pressures. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed 11.3 basis points to 4.84% in Q4 amid lingering inflation uncertainty, while the two-year yield dropped 13.5 basis points to 3.47%, reflecting shifting Fed policy expectations. Credit spreads widened to 76.8 basis points in late November from a Q3 low of 64.5 basis points as economic volatility spiked, before narrowing slightly by year-end as market sentiment stabilized. The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in 2025, reversing prior tightening cycles, which boosted bond valuations and supported fixed-income returns despite persistent macroeconomic risks. Yield curve dynamics highlighted diverging outlooks, with long-term rates rising on inflation concerns while short-term rates fell, signaling potential recession fears and policy easing ahead.
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Diamond Hill Capital Management39 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryThe Bloomberg US Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.35% during Q4, bringing year-to-date performance for the index to 7.45%, the best annual performance since 2002.The 30-year Treasury yield rose 11.3 bps in Q4 on uncertainty around the future path of inflation, ending the year at 4.84%, while the two-year Treasury yield fell 13.5 bps to 3.47%.After bottoming in late Q3 at 64.5 bps, spreads widened to as much as 76.8 bps in late November amid heightened economic uncertainty before tightening into year end. webking/iStock via Getty Images Market review and outlook The Bloomberg US Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.35% during Q4, bringing year-to-date performance for the index to 7.45%, the best annual performance since 2002. After lowering the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points (BPs) inThis article was written byDiamond Hill Capital Management39 FollowersFollowDiamond Hill Capital Management, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Diamond Hill Investment Group, Inc.

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