Could the Sudden Jump In Gas Prices Hurt Costco's Stock? Here's How Supply Chain Issues Could Affect the Retailer in 2026.

By Jeremy Bowman – Mar 11, 2026 at 4:55PM ESTKey PointsGasoline prices have surged since the war in Iran began.Gas prices raise shipping costs, making retail products more expensive.Costco's reputation and business model can help it benefit from higher gas prices. Rising gas prices have a widespread impact on the economy. Of course, consumers feel the pinch every time they go to the pump, but it raises prices in myriad other ways. Other fuel costs go up, including for heating oil and propane. Natural gas prices have soared as well, meaning electricity costs are up. Consumers also see higher prices elsewhere, including for transportation, as fuel is a major input for airlines, trucking, and shipping, which means that retail prices go up as shippers typically need to pay a fuel surcharge in this kind of environment. One of the retailers most affected by rising prices is Costco Wholesale (COST 0.53%), one of the largest retailers in the country. Costco benefits from a differentiated business model as it makes most of its profit from its membership fee and sells goods at near cost. It also private-labels much of what it sells under the Kirkland brand. Brand names agree to let Costco private-label their products because they can move a lot of product at Costco, even though it typically comes at lower margins. Costco's bulk-selling model also helps it keep prices down, incentivizing customer visits. Image source: Getty Images. How higher gas prices affect Costco Costco is also differentiated as a retailer because it sells gasoline as a way of drawing customers to its stores. In fact, high gas prices tend to be good for Costco because shoppers are more likely to get gas there to take advantage of the discount when gas prices are up. That can also drive traffic to Costco's stores, benefiting the retailer in two ways. Similarly, consumers are more likely to visit Costco when prices are up since they count on the retailer for the lowest prices. ExpandNASDAQ: COSTCostco WholesaleToday's Change(-0.53%) $-5.30Current Price$992.06Key Data PointsMarket Cap$443BDay's Range$988.00 - $997.4052wk Range$844.06 - $1067.08Volume55KAvg Vol2.6MGross Margin13.60%Dividend Yield0.52% If you're curious how higher gas prices and inflation might affect Costco, 2022 offers a good analog. Back then, gas prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine, and prices rose due to supply chain constraints caused by the end of the pandemic. However, Costco shone in that era. In the quarter ended Aug. 28, 2022, it reported comparable sales up 10.4%, adjusted for fuel prices, and 10.6% growth for the year ended that date, even as Costco had delivered strong results during the pandemic. The current situation isn't exactly the same. Consumers in 2022 were still flush with cash from pandemic-era stimulus, but Costco appears to be in better shape than most of its peers to endure an extended period of high gas prices. Once again, Costco's business model is ready to meet the moment. Read NextMar 11, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerIs Costco Stock a Buy as Sales Continue to Sizzle?Mar 11, 2026 •By Leo SunCould Investing $1,000 in Costco (COST) Make You Richer?Mar 11, 2026 •By Will HealyIs Costco Stock Going to $1,500?Mar 10, 2026 •By Neil PatelBest Stock to Buy and Hold Forever: Costco vs. Home DepotMar 9, 2026 •By Neil Patel3 Things to Know About Costco Stock Before You BuyMar 6, 2026 •By Daniel SparksCostco's Strong Growth Continues. But Is the Stock Too Expensive?About the AuthorJeremy Bowman has been a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst, covering technology, consumer goods, and macroeconomic trends since 2011.

Before The Motley Fool, Jeremy was a newspaper reporter, restaurant manager, and English teacher abroad. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English from Colorado College and a master’s degree in business administration from American University. One of his Motley Fool headlines was briefly featured on Late Night with Stephen Colbert.TMFHoboX@TMFBowmanStocks MentionedCostco WholesaleNASDAQ: COST$992.06(-0.53%)-$5.30*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.