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Could Buying Palantir Technologies Today Set You Up for Life?

newsfeedback@fool.com (Keith Speights)
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⚡ Quantum Brief
CEO Alex Karp claims Palantir is in the "very beginning" of a generational growth phase, citing 70% YoY revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by surging commercial demand alongside traditional government contracts. Despite record performance, shares plunged in early 2026 amid a broader SaaS sell-off, mirroring April 2025’s dip—when buyers later saw 140% gains by year-end, fueling speculation about another rebound opportunity. Commercial revenue surged 137% YoY to $507 million, nearly matching government revenue ($570M), signaling a strategic shift beyond defense contracts to AI-driven enterprise solutions grounded in real-world data. Valuation remains extreme at 130x forward earnings, requiring sustained hypergrowth to justify prices, while political exposure (40%+ revenue from U.S. government) poses risks if administrations change post-2028. Karp distinguishes Palantir from generic AI firms, emphasizing its "tethered" AI models for real-world applications, but analysts warn of volatility and better-risk alternatives for long-term investors.
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By Keith Speights – Mar 12, 2026 at 9:41PM ESTKey PointsPalantir CEO Alex Karp believes his company is in its early stages of growth.The stock's valuation, though, remains astronomically high.The last time Palantir Technologies (PLTR +1.25%) fell as much as it has currently was in April 2025. Investors who bought on the pullback finished the year with a sizzling 140% gain. History is chock-full of examples of how investing in promising growth stocks when they were down significantly can pave the way for life-changing returns. Could buying Palantir today set you up for life? ExpandNASDAQ: PLTRPalantir TechnologiesToday's Change(1.25%) $1.90Current Price$153.50Key Data PointsMarket Cap$363BDay's Range$151.00 - $155.8852wk Range$66.12 - $207.52Volume2.1MAvg Vol49MGross Margin82.37% Only the beginning? The answer to that question could be a resounding "yes" if Palantir Technologies co-founder and CEO Alex Karp is right. Karp wrote in his latest letter to shareholders, "We are at the outset, the very beginning, of a generational project." Assuming Palantir truly is at the beginning of its growth curve, it's off to a great start. Palantir's total revenue soared 70% year over year and 19% sequentially in Q4 to $1.4 billion. In the past, the company relied primarily on government contracts. That isn't the case anymore. Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue skyrocketed 137% year over year in Q4 to $507 billion, not too far behind its U.S. government revenue of $570 million. With that kind of impressive growth, why has Palantir's stock declined sharply year to date? It has been caught up in a massive sell-off of SaaS stocks. But there's a strong case to be made that Palantir's pullback isn't warranted. Karp would likely argue with anyone who maintained that Palantir is a typical AI stock. He stated in the recent shareholder letter that AI models "must be tethered to objects in the real world, and it is that tether, that means of grounding and orientation, that we have built." Based on Karp's take, investing in Palantir right now makes a lot of sense. Image source: Getty Images. Valuation vs. vision There's one glaring problem, though. Even after Palantir's steep share price decline, its stock still trades at roughly 130 times forward earnings and 49 times forward sales. To call that an expensive valuation is an understatement. Palantir must continue delivering ginormous growth to have any chance of justifying those sky-high valuation multiples. Any hiccups along the way would almost certainly lead to another significant sell-off, perhaps an even greater one than what we've seen in 2026. One potential hiccup comes to mind immediately. Palantir has become so tightly linked with the Trump administration that it could work against the company if the political winds shift in 2028. While Palantir has dramatically increased its commercial revenue, more than 40% of its total revenue still comes from the U.S. government. Karp's vision for the company paints a picture of long-term, sustained growth at unprecedented levels. Perhaps he will be proven right. However, I think other stocks offer a better risk profile for long-term investors.Read NextMar 12, 2026 •By Harsh ChauhanWhy March Could Be a Turning Point for Palantir StockMar 12, 2026 •By Danny Vena, CPAPalantir and Nvidia Join Forces to Tackle This $600 Billion OpportunityMar 12, 2026 •By Sean Williams2 of the Most Sought-After AI Stocks Can Plunge Up to 68%, According to Select Wall Street AnalystsMar 11, 2026 •By Keithen DruryPalantir Is Up More Than 2,200% Since 2023.

Can Its Run Continue?Mar 11, 2026 •By James HiresThe Biggest Bet in Tech Isn't on Polymarket. It's This AI Stock.Mar 10, 2026 •By Danny Vena, CPAPolymarket Joins Forces with Palantir to Bring Its Industry-Leading Artificial Intelligence (AI) to the Prediction MarketsAbout the AuthorKeith Speights is a contributing Motley Fool healthcare analyst covering publicly traded companies across pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, technology, and marijuana. Prior to The Motley Fool, Keith was CEO of Constant Care Technology, a healthcare technology company; vice president of American HealthTech, a healthcare software company; and a director of operations for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Mississippi, a health insurer. He holds a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Mississippi State University.TMFFishBizStocks MentionedPalantir TechnologiesNASDAQ: PLTR$153.50(+1.25%)+$1.90*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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