Costco sees big opportunity as Americans ditch restaurants

For many Americans, going out to dinner used to be part of their weekly routine. Now, it's a luxury.In late 2025, 37% of Americans reported that they were dining out less frequently than they were a year prior, according to a YouGov survey. And among those cutting back on dining out, 69% cited the rising cost of restaurant meals as the reason.Considering the way restaurant costs have risen in the past year, none of this is surprising.In February, the cost of dining out rose 3.9% on an annual basis, according to the Consumer Price Index. Grocery prices rose as well, but at a much slower pace of 2.4%.This shift away from dining out opens the door for grocery stores to up their game when it comes to at-home meals. And Costco is already taking advantage.Consumers are leaning on grocery stores as restaurant prices riseOlder generations are pulling away from restaurants at a faster pace than younger ones, according to a January 2026 report by McKinsey. That's understandable, given that many older Americans live on a fixed income of Social Security that doesn't allow much wiggle room.But as a whole, U.S. consumers plan to cut back on restaurant spending in the coming months through a combination of fewer visits and a decrease in the amount spent per meal. Related: Costco makes a key investment to help membersAt the same time, Americans are diverting more of their income to groceries. Recent data from Placer.ai show that as of the fourth quarter of 2025, grocery store visits were up compared to a year prior. Specifically:Visits to fresh format grocers increased 10.9%.Visits to value grocers rose 7.1%.Visits to wholesale club increased 7.2%.Visits to traditional grocers rose 4.4%.The fact that warehouse club visits rose at a faster rate than those to traditional grocers makes sense. At a time when consumers are seeking value, they're looking to minimize their grocery spending, too. Often, that means leaning on the bulk savings offered by warehouse club giants such as Costco and Sam's Club. Grocery-store visits are rising as consumers dine out less frequently.Shutterstock Costco takes advantage of consumers' preference to dine at homeWhile consumers are increasingly shifting to dining at home versus dining at restaurants, the reality is that people who are used to going out for meals multiple times a week may not exactly be ready to embrace the idea of cooking most nights. That's where Costco can really shine.Costco has long been known for its assortment of affordable, family-sized prepared meals. And now, the company is upping its game with new products that make for a quick, easy dinner.More Retail:Costco sees major shift in member behaviorRetail chain shuts all locations as legal changes hit industryCostco makes major investment in online shopping for membersT-Mobile launches free offer for customers after major loss"Kirkland Signature remains a top focus to deliver great value for our members…In Q2, we launched approximately 30 new KS items, including crispy wings, blackened salmon, and various apparel items," said Costco CFO Gary Millerchip during the company's most recent earnings call. Costco members tend to generally get excited when new food products hit the shelves. But at a time when more people can't afford to dine out, additions to Costco's grocery offerings are especially enticing.Costco also recently introduced a prepared meal of crab cakes with lemon slices that members seem very happy with. At an average price of $21.99 per pound, as reported by Parade, they're perhaps pricier than the typical Costco food product. But compared to paying for a restaurant entree, they're a bargain.If Costco continues to focus on adding higher-end, reasonably priced entrees to its selection of prepared foods, the company could see a huge uptick in food sales. That would also solve a key problem for consumers: giving members access to delicious meals they don't have to cook from scratch, at a fraction of what a restaurant might charge. Maurie Backman owns shares of Costco.Related: Costco brings back a popular item