Coffee Supply Fears are Boosting Prices

AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA Stocks Coffee Supply Fears are Boosting Prices March 20, 2026 — 02:16 pm EDT Written by Rich Asplund for Barchart-> May arabica coffee (KCK26) today is up +8.60 (+2.86%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) is up +20 (+0.55%).Coffee prices are extending this week's rally today, with arabica posting a 1.5-month high and robusta posting a 1.5-week high. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping, tightened global supplies, and is supporting coffee prices. The closure of the waterway has increased global shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, and raises costs for coffee importers and roasters. Robusta coffee also has support from tighter inventories, as ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-month low of 4,257 lots today. Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. On Monday, arabica coffee fell to a 2-week low, and May robusta fell to a contract low, as abundant rains in Brazil eased crop concerns. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 57.7 mm of rain last week, or 139% of the historical average.The outlook for a bumper Brazil coffee crop is bearish for coffee prices, after StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from its November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Rising ICE inventories are also pressuring arabica coffee prices as ICE-monitored arabica inventories rose to a 5.75-month high of 585,621 bags on Wednesday.Coffee prices also saw support from recent news that Brazil's Feb green coffee exports fell by -27% y/y to 2.3 million bags, according to Cecafe. Meanwhile, Brazil's Trade Ministry reported last Thursday that Brazil's Feb coffee exports fell -17.4% y/y to 142,000 MT.Coffee prices in February sold off sharply, with arabica falling to a 16-month low on February 24 and robusta tumbling to a 7.25-month low on February 23 as signs of a bumper Brazilian coffee crop supported the global supply outlook. On February 5, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, said that Brazil's 2026 coffee production will climb by +17.2% y/y to a record 66.2 million bags, with arabica production up +23.2% y/y to 44.1 million bags and robusta production up +6.3% y/y to 22.1 million bags. Meanwhile, Rabobank said on March 4 that global coffee production is projected to reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, up by about 8 million bags from a year earlier. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported on March 6 that its Jan-Feb 2026 coffee exports rose by 14% y/y to 366,000 MT. Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart Are Fertilizers a Compelling Opportunity? Spreads Unwinding: Soybean Meal Prices Highlight a Buying Opportunity Here Where are World Sugar Futures Prices Heading?

Corn Prices Are Trending Higher. 1 Options Trade to Make Now. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Tags Stocks Barchart With headquarters in the heart of Chicago's financial district, Barchart has been an industry-leader since 1995 when we launched Barchart.com as one of the first websites for commodities and futures market data. Since then, we have evolved into a global financial technology leader providing market data and services to the global financial, media, and commodity industries. More articles by this source-> More Related Articles This data feed is not available at this time. Data is currently not available • Sign up for the TradeTalks newsletter to receive your weekly dose of trading news, trends and education. Delivered Wednesdays.