Cocoa Prices Surge on Insufficient Rain in West Africa

AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA Stocks Cocoa Prices Surge on Insufficient Rain in West Africa March 31, 2026 — 01:58 pm EDT Written by Rich Asplund for Barchart-> May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) today is up +131 (+4.15%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) is up +120 (+5.09%).Cocoa prices are sharply higher today, with NY cocoa posting a 1-week high and London cocoa posting a 2-week high. Cocoa prices surged today as recent rainfall in West Africa has been insufficient to ease drought concerns in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. According to the African Flood and Drought Monitor, as of March 29, drought conditions blanket more than half of the Ivory Coast and about two-thirds of Ghana. Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. Gains in London cocoa accelerated today after the British pound (^GBPUSD) fell to a 4-month low. The weaker pound boosts cocoa that is priced in sterling.An excessive short position by funds in London cocoa could add fuel to any short-covering rally. Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed funds boosted their short position in London cocoa by 2,077 net-short positions to 30,375, the most in more than four years.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is supportive for cocoa prices as it has reduced fertilizer supplies, boosted global shipping rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, thereby raising cocoa importers' costs.In addition, slowing cocoa deliveries to ports in the Ivory Coast is supportive of prices. Monday's cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.43 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through March 29, 2026), down -0.7% from 1.44 MMT in the same period a year ago. Cocoa prices were under pressure over the past three weeks, posting 3-week lows last Thursday amid expectations of a bumper West African cocoa crop.Ample supplies are also weighing on cocoa prices, as ICE cocoa inventories rose to an 8.25-month high of 2,361,005 bags on Monday.Last month, Ghana cut the official price it pays its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for supplies for the 2025/26 growing season, and the Ivory Coast also said it would cut cocoa farmer pay by 57% that would kick in for the mid-crop harvest that started this month.

The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce more than half of the world's cocoa.Demand concerns have hammered cocoa prices as consumers continue to balk at the high price of chocolate. On January 28, Barry Callebaut AG, the world's largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a -22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, citing "negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa."Grinding reports also showed weak demand. On January 15, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -8.3% y/y to 304,470 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -2.9% y/y and the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years. On December 16, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y/y to 197,022 MT. Also, the National Confectioners Association reported Q4 North American cocoa grindings rose only +0.3% y/y to 103,117 MT.Also undercutting cocoa prices are higher exports from Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. On February 17, Bloomberg reported that Nigerian Dec cocoa exports rose +17% y/y to 54,799 MT. Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year. On the bullish side, the Ivory Coast said its cocoa production in 2025/26 would fall -10.8% y/y to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25. On February 10, Rabobank cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.As a bearish factor, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on March 2 raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT from 49,000 MT in November, which was the first surplus in four years. ICCO estimated that global cocoa production in 2024/25 climbed by +8.4% y/y to 4.7 MMT. Looking ahead, StoneX on January 29 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in the 2025/26 season and a 267,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart After a Record Bull Run, Is the Cattle Market Headed for Collapse? 1 Winning Trade Idea to Play Fertilizer Shortages and Rising Prices What Should We Expect From USDA Tuesday?

Mark Your Calendars: Grain Traders Brace for Major USDA Data Points Tuesday The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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