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Cocoa Price Crash Spurs Hopes for Demand Recovery, Cheaper Candy

Ilena Peng, Mumbi Gitau, Anuradha Raghu
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Cocoa futures have plummeted 75% from 2024’s record highs, sparking hopes of lower chocolate prices as cheaper beans enter the supply chain. Confectioners still grapple with expensive stockpiles and adjusted recipes after 2024’s price surge, delaying full cost relief for consumers. A larger-than-expected cocoa surplus now looms after improved harvests and demand destruction, reversing last year’s supply crunch. Chocolate makers are exploring cocoa-free alternatives amid volatility, signaling long-term shifts in ingredient sourcing strategies. Analysts predict gradual price declines for candy bars, though full recovery depends on processing delays and sustained lower futures.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Confectionery makers are looking into cocoa-free chocolate alternative solutions.The collapse in cocoa futures is stoking optimism among some industry players that the pace of processing will improve as cheaper beans filter through the supply chain, easing the price of candy bars.Companies, even now, are still working through pricey stock or following tweaked recipes that use less cocoa after a historic rally in 2024 reshaped the chocolate industry. The demand destruction that followed, coupled with decent harvests, has boosted prospects for a larger-than-expected surplus and has pushed the most-active New York cocoa contract down about 75% from its record.

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