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Clock Is Ticking On Iran's Oil Leverage

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Global oil prices are nearing a peak as Strait of Hormuz disruptions subside, easing supply chain pressures and normalizing trade routes by mid-2026. Iran’s geopolitical leverage over oil flows is at its zenith, pushing the nation to capitalize on its influence before alternative energy solutions erode its bargaining power. Technical indicators for USO reveal bearish divergence and waning momentum, reinforcing fundamental data showing improved supply stability and reduced market volatility. A potential market shift from "long oil, short growth" strategies to tech and long-duration assets may unfold if oil prices continue their downward trajectory. Investors are urged to reassess portfolios as energy crisis fears wane, favoring diversification into sectors like tech and cryptocurrencies amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.
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James FoordInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)Comments(2)SummaryOil prices appear close to topping as Strait of Hormuz disruptions ease and global supply routes normalize.Iran's leverage over oil flows is peaking, incentivizing it to monetize before alternatives diminish its power.Technical analysis of USO shows bearish divergence and momentum loss, aligning with fundamental supply improvements.A shift from 'long oil, short growth' to favoring tech and long-duration assets could emerge if oil declines.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Pragmatic Investor get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » hernan4429/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary While everyone is calling for $200 oil, I believe this energy crisis could be nearing an end. This makes sense when we look at fundamentals and also technicals. As I write this, oil isThis article was written byJames Foord27.67K FollowersFollowJames Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth.

The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market update newsletter, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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