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China's Trade Surplus Plummets As Exports Slow And Imports Surge

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China’s trade surplus hit a 13-month low of $51.1 billion in March 2026 as exports grew just 2.5% year-over-year, plummeting from 21.8% in January-February. Imports surged unexpectedly, driven by rising tech component prices, while higher energy costs are expected to further inflate import bills in coming months. External demand contributed 1.6 percentage points to China’s 5% GDP growth in 2025, but the shrinking surplus signals weaker trade-driven expansion in Q1 2026. The export slowdown marks a five-month low, reflecting cooling global demand and potential structural shifts in China’s trade-dependent economic model. Analysts warn the trend may persist, pressuring Beijing to rely more on domestic consumption amid weakening external trade tailwinds.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.32K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(6min)CommentsSummaryChina's March trade surplus slowed to just $51.1bn, a 13-month low, as exports fell more than expected, while imports surged amid rising tech prices.We expect higher energy prices to feed into import prices in the months ahead.External demand contributed 1.6pp of China's 5pp growth last year. At the very least, the smaller trade surplus suggests that this contribution will drop off in the 1Q26 data. Sunshine Seeds/iStock via Getty Images By Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China Export growth slumped to a 5-month low China’s export growth slowed to just 2.5% year-on-year in March, down from 21.8% YoY over the first two months of the year. This cameThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.32K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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