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China's Inflation Hits 37-Month High Ahead Of Upcoming Oil Price Shock

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China’s CPI inflation surged to 1.3% year-on-year in February, marking a 37-month high and exceeding forecasts, reversing earlier deflation concerns. The spike was partly driven by Lunar New Year demand, but analysts warn of sustained pressure as oil prices climb, likely pushing March inflation higher. Further inflationary risks in 2026 stem from "anti-involution" policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and economic restructuring. The data contradicts prior "deflation doom loop" narratives, signaling a potential shift in China’s economic trajectory amid global commodity price volatility. Economists now anticipate persistent inflationary trends, with energy costs and policy measures likely shaping price growth through the year.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(5min)CommentsSummaryThe China 'deflation doom loop' story certainly looks like it's aged poorly, as inflation continues to trend higher.February's boost was partly Lunar New Year driven, but there's further inflationary pressure likely ahead in March thanks to the surge in oil prices.Inflation for 2026 as a whole could also be supported by 'anti-involution' efforts. sankai/iStock via Getty Images By Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China February CPI inflation hits a 37-month high on Lunar New Year effect China's consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 1.3% year-on-year in February, up from 0.2% in January, higher than consensus forecasts.This article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.23K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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