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CDT Insider Sentiment March 2026: The Probability Race And Barbell Strategies

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
U.S. military action against Iran triggered a 90%+ oil price surge in early 2026, destabilizing global markets and driving the S&P 500 down 5% in March alone. CDT Capital’s insider-driven hedge fund outperformed broader markets, posting ~1% net returns for Q1 despite volatility, validating its risk framework amid geopolitical shocks. The fund slashed cash reserves to 4% of assets—its lowest level since COVID-19—signaling aggressive deployment of capital amid perceived market opportunities from the crisis. Geopolitical tensions accelerated a "probability race," forcing investors to weigh extreme outcomes, with CDT emphasizing barbell strategies to balance high-risk and safe-haven assets. Corporate insider activity remains CDT’s core edge, as executives’ asymmetric information gains outsized importance during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty and rapid oil price shifts.
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CDT Capital Management144 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryThe U.S. military campaign against the Iranian theocracy has roiled financial markets. As a result of the incursion, oil prices are surging and are up 90%+ since the beginning of the year.For the month, the S&P 500 Total Return Index was down -5% and ranged -8% from high to low.Exiting the first quarter of the year with a return of ~1% net of fees is an achievement that underscores the veracity of the CDT risk and investment framework.At approximately 4% of assets, we are now sitting at our lowest reserve balances since COVID in 2020. Maximusnd/iStock via Getty Images Jolted. The U.S. military campaign against the Iranian theocracy has roiled financial markets. As a result of the incursion, oil prices are surging and are up 90%+ since the beginning of the year and continuing to gain ground. The acuteThis article was written byCDT Capital Management144 FollowersFollowCDT Capital Management is an unlevered, long-only U.S. equities hedge fund specializing in decoding insider activity. With unfettered real-time access to operations, we believe that corporate insiders possess and routinely exploit an asymmetric information advantage over the rest of the market. Our value investing approach aims to tap this rich source of information by incorporating extraordinary insider activity into the fabric of the CDT investment and risk management strategy.

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