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Bonds may be the real winner now that the world economy has sidestepped a historic oil crisis

Brett Arends
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Averted geopolitical oil crisis spared the global economy from a historic supply shock after Iran tensions threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, per Dallas Fed warnings. The Dallas Fed had warned of a U.S. energy crisis potentially two to three times worse than the 1973, 1979, and 1990 oil shocks, which previously triggered stagflation and recessions. Bonds emerged as the primary beneficiary as markets stabilized post-crisis, reflecting investor flight to safety amid lingering economic uncertainty and easing oil price volatility. The crisis deadline expired without major disruption, avoiding what analysts called the "largest geopolitical oil supply disruption in history" and its cascading economic fallout. Author Brett Arends, a veteran financial analyst and award-winning writer, contextualized the near-miss as a pivotal moment for energy markets and global economic resilience.
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Bonds may be the real winner now that the world economy has sidestepped a historic oil crisisListen(4 min)Listen(4 min)The Iran crisis and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatened “the largest geopolitical oil supply disruption in history” and a U.S. energy crisis “between two and three times as large” as the crises of 1973, 1979 and 1990, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warned shortly before President Donald Trump’s latest deadline expired on Tuesday. Those previous crises tipped the economy into stagflation and recession.About the AuthorBrett Arends is an award-winning financial writer with many years experience writing about markets, economics and personal finance. He has received an individual award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers for his financial writing, and was part of the Boston Herald team that won two others. He has worked as an analyst at McKinsey Co., and is a Chartered Financial Consultant. His latest book, "Storm Proof Your Money", was published by John Wiley Co.A Dow Jones CompanyCopyright © 2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.

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