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Bond Market Momentum Shifts Bears’ Way as Sell Signals Flash

Ye Xie
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The $31 trillion Treasury market shifted bearish in February 2026 as multiple pressures emerged, reversing a month-long rally. Key drivers include a Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs and persistent Fed rate hike risks. The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s tariffs eliminates a major deficit-financing revenue stream, increasing fiscal uncertainty. This move compounds existing market volatility amid shifting monetary policy expectations. Stronger-than-expected jobs data and elevated inflation readings reduce odds of near-term Fed rate cuts. Traders now anticipate prolonged higher rates, dampening bond demand and pushing yields upward. Treasuries posted their first monthly decline in weeks as bearish momentum accelerated. Analysts warn the sell-off could deepen if economic resilience persists, further delaying Fed easing. The labor market’s resilience and inflation stickiness signal the Fed may maintain restrictive policy longer than anticipated, reinforcing the bearish Treasury outlook through early 2026.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000From the Supreme Court’s decision against Donald Trump’s tariffs to the threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes and signs of labor-market resilience, a range of pressures are forcing a sentiment shift in the $31 trillion Treasury market back in favor of bears.Treasuries fell last week for the first time in a month as a slate of negative drivers piled up. The US high court’s move to strike down Trump’s signature global tariffs threatens to remove, at least for now, a major source of government revenue used to finance the deficit. Meanwhile, jobs data and a higher-than-expected inflation reading suggest the bar is high for further Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

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Source: Bloomberg Markets

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