Blue Owl Capital: Dividend Cut Already Priced In

The Asian Investor31.54K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryBlue Owl Capital faces a widening price-to-NAV discount after a failed merger and sector-wide AI disruption concerns.OBDC's dividend coverage remains above 100%, but market pricing reflects expectations of a 10–25% dividend cut amid falling base rates and lower excess coverage.Despite 4% Y/Y NII growth and a stable non-accrual ratio, OBDC's valuation at 0.78x NAV signals investor caution and a sector rerating.I believe the risk of a dividend cut is already priced in, offering 28% upside if OBDC revalues to NAV.Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) saw a significant widening in the gap between its share price and its net asset value in the fourth quarter of 2025, mainly because the BDC messed up the merger betweenThis article was written byThe Asian Investor31.54K FollowersFollowI am interested in a lot of technology and AI stocks like Google, Nvidia, AMD, Tesla and Amazon.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OBDC, ARCC, BXSL, FSK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.