Bitcoin’s institutional shift drives Bernstein’s US$150,000 call

This illustration photograph taken on November 22, 2024 in Istanbul shows a coin imitation of the Bitcoin crypto currency arranged beside a screen displaying a trading chart. Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty ImagesArticle contentBitcoin has likely reached a floor and could rise to US$150,000 by the end of 2026, according to Bernstein, which argues the cryptocurrency is being reshaped by a steady shift toward institutional ownership and financing.Sign In or Create an AccountEmail AddressContinueor View more offersArticle contentThe Wall Street firm says a transition from a market once dominated by retail speculation to one increasingly anchored by exchange-traded funds, corporate balance sheets and structured capital is altering how Bitcoin behaves. And it’s making downturns less disorderly and potentially extending the current cycle.Article contentWe apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, ortap here to see other videos from our team.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, ortap here to see other videos from our team.Play VideoArticle contentArticle contentBitcoin’s recent performance offers a test of that thesis. Prices, currently trading around US$70,000, fell by more than 50 per cent from their peak, yet the selloff didn’t trigger the kind of cascading liquidation seen in earlier cycles.Article contentPosthasteBreaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.There was an error, please provide a valid email address.Sign UpBy signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.Thanks for signing up!A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.Article content“Bitcoin will continue to outperform driven by strong institutional demand from ETFs which have been resilient through the market correction (year-to-date outflows have reversed) and new institutional on-ramps from banks offering Bitcoin financial services,” the firm said in a Tuesday report.Article content“Bitcoin market structure has matured” relative to earlier boom-and-bust cycles, Bernstein added.Article contentCompanies such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. have continued to accumulate Bitcoin through the downturn, using equity and preferred securities to fund purchases. This growing link between crypto markets and capital markets is creating a more persistent source of demand — and a different set of risks, Bernstein says.Article contentArticle contentStrategy alone has bought the token at a pace exceeding new issuance this year, effectively absorbing a meaningful share of incremental supply even as prices declined.Article contentArticle contentA prolonged downturn in Bitcoin, particularly as convertible debt matures, could force firms like Strategy to refinance on less favorable terms or sell holdings to meet obligations, while a pullback in capital markets could limit their ability to raise fresh funds.Article contentSo far, however, those pressures have not derailed accumulation. “Strategy enjoys a track record of risk management, living through deep Bitcoin correction cycles, and not over-extending itself on debt,” the report says.Article contentBernstein pointed to a concentration of ownership among long-term holders, with 60 per cent of Bitcoin supply inactive for more than a year. That reflects a base of investors less sensitive to short-term price swings, helping to dampen volatility during drawdowns.Article contentETFs are also becoming a key source of stability for the digital asset, holding about 6.1% of total Bitcoin supply — a shift Bernstein says is positive for its ownership structure.Article contentTogether, these trends challenge fears that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle peaked in 2025, Bernstein says, pointing to a more extended bull run that could end with a potential high of around US$200,000 at the end of 2027.Article contentBloomberg.comArticle contentTrending Posthaste: Canada's troubled housing market just got hit with another headwind News JPMorgan sees 'national security risk' in old grid networks PMN Business Despite growing financial pressures, Canadians are still reliably paying their mortgages Mortgages Oil and gas supply chain is about to snap, warns energy economist Peter Tertzakian Oil & Gas Subscriber only. 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