Bitcoin nears zone where past bear markets have bottomed out

Bitcoin offers a more asymmetric opportunity to the upside than the downside — and that trying to time the final few percentage points of a decline usually means missing the broader move. Photo by SEBASTIEN BOZON/AFP via Getty ImagesArticle contentBitcoin has lost almost half its value since October, and a set of indicators that have historically marked the end of past downturns suggest the selloff could be entering its final phase, according to a crypto fund manager who has invested through three prior boom-and-bust cycles.Sign In or Create an AccountEmail AddressContinueor View more offersArticle contentBrett Munster at Blockforce Capital tracks four measures to gauge where Bitcoin stands in its crash cycle. One has already crossed into territory associated with past lows. Two others converge near US$54,000 to US$58,000 — still below Bitcoin’s current price of about US$73,800. And the token briefly touched US$60,000 in February before rebounding, meaning it has already grazed the upper edge of what Munster considers a probable bottoming zone.Article contentWe apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, ortap here to see other videos from our team.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, ortap here to see other videos from our team.Play VideoArticle contentArticle contentThat gap — between where Bitcoin trades now and where his remaining metrics fully trigger — might seem like a reason for caution. Munster argues it isn’t. In the last bear market, the difference between buying at US$19,000 and catching the ultimate bottom at US$15,600 proved negligible for anyone who held over multiple years. His advice now is the same: scale in gradually rather than wait for the perfect entry.Article contentArticle contentPosthasteBreaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.There was an error, please provide a valid email address.Sign UpBy signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.Thanks for signing up!A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.Article contentWhile a floor isn’t guaranteed, “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us, and the asymmetry is shifting,” he said, adding that a potential turnaround could come about mid-year. On Friday, Bitcoin added as much as five per cent to reach around US$73,800.Article contentThe measure already flashing is the so-called MVRV Z-Score, which signals when Bitcoin trades above or below its on-chain cost basis. When it falls below 0.4, the coin has tended to trade at undervalued levels. Today it sits at roughly 0.38. The other indicators aren’t there yet.Article contentRealized price — the average price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain — currently stands near US$54,000. The 200-week moving average, a support level that has helped mark lows in prior cycles, is around US$58,000. And the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns — often seen as a sign that the asset class is maturing as liquidity and participation deepen — suggests a potential bottom between US$45,000 and US$55,000.Article contentArticle contentTogether, the four point to what Munster calls “a high-probability accumulation zone between approximately US$45,000 and US$60,000.”Article contentArticle contentRead More Binance joins Mastercard’s crypto partner program Crypto's 24-hour promise gets a geopolitical reality check Article contentEven if selling fades, a sustained recovery needs fresh demand — and there are early signs it’s arriving. United States-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been attracting cash once more following months of withdrawals. More than US$1.6 billion has come into funds including BlackRock’s IBIT and VanEck’s HODL over the past month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Once selling pressure fades, even modest new inflows can move the market,” Munster said.Article contentIt’s welcome news to Bitcoin bulls who have been battered for months. The largest cryptocurrency dropped from more than US$126,000 after an early October crash that rattled retail traders and dampened optimism about crypto-friendly policy shifts under the Trump administration. Other smaller tokens have suffered even worse.Article contentDetermining a bottom is never an exact science, and bear markets can grind on even when technical signals suggest otherwise. Still, Munster says Bitcoin offers a more asymmetric opportunity to the upside than the downside — and that trying to time the final few percentage points of a decline usually means missing the broader move.Article content“Over the long run, investors who accumulate during periods like this are typically rewarded even if they don’t catch the exact bottom,” he said.Article contentBloomberg.comArticle contentWe apologize, but this video has failed to load.Try refreshing your browser, ortap here to see other videos from our team.Play VideoArticle contentTrending Canadians’ average wealth hit $1.07 million, but what’s driving net worth depends on your age, province and bracket Wealth Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.7% as economy loses 84,000 jobs Economy CRA refused to cancel TFSA overcontribution tax Personal Finance Posthaste: Here's one reason why the Bank of Canada could be forced to hike interest rates this year News 82 Canadians crack Forbes’ 2026 list of the world’s billionaires. 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Here's the top 10 High Net Worth