Bank of Canada in a ‘tough spot’ as higher oil prices, weakening economy pull it in opposing directions

There are too many unknowns for the central bank to hint at where it might take interest rates, economists sayYou can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.There are too many unknowns for the Bank of Canada to hint at where it might take interest rates if the conditions call for a change in monetary policy, say economists, after policymakers on Wednesday held rates at 2.25 per cent for the third straight time.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Among the unknowns are how long the war in Iran could last, the effects of the oil-price shock on the Canadian economy and the looming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).Here’s what economists think of the latest rate decision and where the Bank of Canada goes from here.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.“The Bank of Canada is caught between two opposing forces: surging global energy prices and a weakening domestic economy,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said in a note.Energy prices have risen around 40 per cent since the start of the U.S.-Israel-led attack on Iran, while Canada’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could significantly undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate for annualized growth of 1.8 per cent.However, Mendez said policymakers took the threats posed by the deteriorating job market, souring business conditions and additional financial stress of higher energy prices on households over the risks that elevated oil prices pose to inflation.The Bank of Canada also removed the line in its statement that the current level of interest rates looked “appropriate,” but Mendes said that doesn’t indicate any imminent rate hikes.“The tone of these communications reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada is willing to look through the impacts of higher energy prices on (the consumer price index) so long as the conflict doesn’t last for too long,” he said.Desjardins expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at their current level for the rest of the year.There was “a little bit of something for both the doves and the hawks” in the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Economics, said in a note, pointing out that governor Tiff Macklem referenced the weak state of the economy and the inflation threat posed by higher energy prices.But he said the doves — those calling for rate cuts rather than hikes — won out.“The quick takeaway is that the (Bank of Canada) can afford to be patient over the near term,” he said, referring to Macklem’s comments that the effects of the Iran war look “contained” for now.Still, Porter said it was important to acknowledge that Macklem said that if energy prices stay high, the Bank of Canada would not let the effects “broaden and become persistent inflation.”Markets are betting for a rate hike by year-end, but he said the case for that call is “weak,” especially because of the continuing uncertainty around trade talks with the U.S.He also said the war in Iran is squeezing the Bank of Canada between slowing growth and rising inflation risks, and that interest rates are likely on hold until the breadth of the energy price shock is known.“It’s also abundantly clear that the (Bank of Canada) was more concerned about the (economic) outlook prior to the war, and would have been even more dovish in today’s statement were it not for the spike in oil prices,” he said.“The Bank of Canada sounded marginally dovish while keeping its key policy rate at 2.25 per cent today,” Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note.He said the central bank pointed to a worsening economic outlook while at the same time “looking through” the immediate impact of the war in Iran.He said poor trade and manufacturing sales data mean GDP likely fell at the start of the year and that the loss of 84,000 jobs in February, coupled with declining hours worked, reinforces that outlook.Economists estimate that growth for the first quarter will likely come in below one per cent annualized versus the Bank of Canada’s projection of 1.8 per cent. Fourth-quarter GDP shrank 0.6 per cent.However, upcoming interest rate decisions will pivot on two “highly uncertain” events — the war in Iran and trade negotiations — with varying outcomes pushing the Bank of Canada to possibly hike rates to corral spreading inflation if elevated oil prices persist or cut if U.S.

President Donald Trump were to pull out of trade talks.“As Macklem keeps reminding us, the range of potential outcomes is wider than at any time in recent years,” Saunders said. “At the margin, though, today’s decision supports our view that the Bank (of Canada) will not seriously consider tightening policy until early next year.”• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.