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Asia’s Worst Currency May Extend Fall on Exposure to Oil Shock

Matthew Burgess
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Thailand’s baht is Asia’s worst-performing currency this month, plunging over 5% amid surging oil prices that exacerbate its import dependency and economic vulnerabilities. Analysts warn the currency could weaken another 2% by mid-2026, reaching 33.2 per dollar, as rising energy costs strain trade balances and investor confidence. Seasonal dividend repatriation by foreign investors is expected to intensify downward pressure, accelerating capital outflows from Thailand’s financial markets. The oil shock compounds existing economic challenges, including sluggish growth and inflationary pressures, increasing risks of prolonged currency depreciation. Strategists at Kasikornbank highlight Thailand’s exposure to energy imports as a key driver, signaling potential long-term instability without policy intervention.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000APAC Fuel Crunch:A historic surge in oil prices is exposing the fragility of import-dependent Thailand, compounding pressure on an already weakening currency and raising the risk of capital flight, analysts say.The baht has dropped more than 5% this month, the worst performance among Asian peers. Strategists at Kasikornbank Pcl see it weakening a further 2% from its current level of 32.8 per dollar by midyear, with rising energy import costs and seasonal dividend repatriation likely to weigh on the currency.

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