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April typically showers stock investors with gains — but this year is no sure bet

Mark Hulbert
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Historical data shows April ranks as the fourth-strongest month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging 1.3% gains over the past century—nearly double the 0.7% monthly average. Three other months match April’s performance, while July outperforms it significantly, challenging the notion of April as uniquely favorable for investors. Analysts warn 2026’s market conditions—including tax season volatility and early "sell in May" positioning—could disrupt the typical April rally pattern. The article cites a century of S&P 500 trends but emphasizes current macroeconomic uncertainties may override historical seasonal strength this year. Investors are cautioned against assuming April gains, as shifting market dynamics and external pressures introduce higher-than-usual risk to the traditional rally.
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April typically showers stock investors with gains — but this year is no sure betListen(3 min)Listen(3 min)Some Wall Street analysts are insisting that April — contrary to its label as the cruelest month — is actually one of the better months for the U.S. stock market.Consider that, over the past century, the S&P 500 SPX (or its predecessor index) has gained 1.3% on average in April — close to double the all-month average of 0.7%. But, as the green columns in the chart below indicate, three other months post average returns on par with those of April (shown as No. 4 for the fourth month), with one month, July (or No. 7), significantly better.About the AuthorMark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch.

His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited.A Dow Jones CompanyCopyright © 2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.

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