The S&P 500 Is Stuck. What History Says Happens Next.

By Keith Speights – Feb 22, 2026 at 4:44AM ESTKey PointsHistory shows a clear pattern with previous range-bound starts for the S&P 500.What's happening beneath the surface of the market now is more important than what happened in the past.2026 is shaping up to be a stock picker's market.These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›SNPINDEX: ^GSPCS&P 500 IndexToday's Changeangle-down(0.69%) $47.62Current Price$6909.51Price as of February 20, 2026 at 4:34 PM ETHistory has some good news for investors concerned about the S&P 500's sluggish start.Many investors aren't enjoying 2026 all that much so far. You might have noticed that the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.69%) is off to a not-so-spectacular start this year. The mojo from the last three years seems to have evaporated. To be sure, the vaunted index hasn't crashed. However, it hasn't gained significant momentum, either. Instead, the S&P 500 remains in what technical traders call a range-bound status. It oscillates between similar highs and lows. In other words, the S&P 500 is stuck. Here's what history says happens next. ExpandSNPINDEX: ^GSPCS&P 500 IndexToday's Change(0.69%) $47.62Current Price$6909.51Key Data PointsDay's Range$6836.33 - $6915.8652wk Range$4835.04 - $7002.28Volume3.3B History lessons from range-bound starts Range-bound starts to a new year haven't been commonplace in the past. However, they're not unheard of. One of the most recent textbook examples of the S&P 500 trading in a range at the start of the year was in 2006. During the first seven or so weeks of the year, the index couldn't break out of an up-and-down cycle. ^SPX data by YCharts What happened next? The S&P took off later in the year and ended 2006 with a solid gain of nearly 14%. Such a happy ending hasn't always happened, though. In 2005, the S&P 500 also remained range-bound early in the year. It never entirely broke out of the range, finishing the year up only 3%. ^SPX data by YCharts On the other hand, investors sometimes partied like it was 1999 after a sluggish start. That was the case in (you probably guessed it) 1999. The S&P 500 couldn't get out of its rut during January and February. That eventually changed, with the index soaring almost 20% by year-end. ^SPX data by YCharts I won't bore you by going through all the examples of range-bound starts for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years. However, history does have some good news for investors. In most cases, the index at least ended the year on a positive note after starting trading in a range. Also, double-digit declines were rare. Image source: Getty Images. What's happening beneath the surface Perhaps the most instructive thing to know about periods when the S&P 500 seems to be stuck, though, is that not every stock moves in lockstep with the index. We're seeing that happen in 2026. For example, the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE 0.54%), which tracks energy stocks in the S&P 500, has soared more than 20% year to date. Several factors explain why, including geopolitical uncertainty that has driven higher oil prices and surging energy demand to power data centers hosting artificial intelligence (AI) systems. ExpandNYSEMKT: XLESelect Sector SPDR Trust - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFToday's Change(-0.54%) $-0.30Current Price$54.88Key Data PointsDay's Range$54.51 - $55.2852wk Range$37.24 - $55.88Volume51M The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB +0.25%) isn't too far behind the high-flying energy ETF. As its name indicates, the fund focuses on material stocks. The AI boom is one reason this ETF has performed so well. Increased infrastructure spending and high commodity prices (especially for gold and silver) are two other key factors. ExpandNYSEMKT: XLBSelect Sector SPDR Trust - State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETFToday's Change(0.25%) $0.13Current Price$52.96Key Data PointsDay's Range$52.32 - $53.2552wk Range$36.56 - $54.14Volume18M Some S&P 500 members are dramatically outgaining their sectors so far this year. Sandisk (SNDK +4.49%) is an excellent case in point. The tech sector has been highly volatile, but this maker of flash memory products has seen its shares skyrocket more than 150%. Opportunities for stock pickers If history is any guide, the S&P 500 will probably finish 2026 on a positive note. However, the present is arguably more helpful to investors than the past. This year is shaping up to be one that offers opportunities for stock pickers. Simply buying an S&P 500 ETF probably won't deliver the kinds of gains you could obtain by selecting individual stocks that are poised to outperform. At this point, energy and materials stocks appear to be the best candidates.Read NextFeb 22, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsPrediction: The Trump Bull Market Will Soon End -- and the Federal Reserve Will Be the Surprise CulpritFeb 22, 2026 •By Trevor JennewineThe Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Investors Get a Warning From the Federal Reserve.

History Says This Could Happen Next.Feb 21, 2026 •By Adam SpataccoThe Stock Market Does This Every 4 Years. It Signals an Alarming S&P 500 Drop in 2026 If History Repeats.Feb 21, 2026 •By Katie BrockmanShould You Really Invest in the Stock Market Right Now? History Offers a Clear Answer.Feb 21, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsPresident Donald Trump's Nomination of Kevin Warsh to Become Fed Chair May Come With Unintended Consequences for Wall StreetFeb 21, 2026 •By Adria CiminoThe Stock Market Just Did This for the First Time in Nearly a Year. History is Strikingly Clear About What Happens Next.About the AuthorKeith Speights is a contributing Motley Fool healthcare analyst covering publicly traded companies across pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, technology, and marijuana. Prior to The Motley Fool, Keith was CEO of Constant Care Technology, a healthcare technology company; vice president of American HealthTech, a healthcare software company; and a director of operations for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Mississippi, a health insurer. He holds a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Mississippi State University.TMFFishBizStocks MentionedS&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$6909.51 (+0.69%) $+47.62Select Sector SPDR Trust - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFNYSEMKT: XLE$54.88 (0.54%) $0.30Select Sector SPDR Trust - State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETFNYSEMKT: XLB$52.96 (+0.25%) $+0.13SandiskNASDAQ: SNDK$648.96 (+4.49%) $+27.87*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.