189-year-old dividend stock offers 19% upside in March 2026

Few companies on Wall Street can claim over 50 years of continuous dividend payments. Deere & Company, founded in 1837, is one of them.That kind of staying power reflects a business built to endure downturns, commodity cycles, and even tariff headwinds. And right now, Wall Street thinks the market is undervaluing this classic dividend stock.Based on 16 analyst ratings collected over the past three months, the average 12-month price target for Deere (DE) stock is $687, a 19% premium to its current price. Ten analysts rate it a “Buy”. Five recommend “Hold,” and one recommends a “Sell”.Deere is a blue-chip dividend stock Deere operates across four business segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.In plain terms, it builds the machines that feed the world and the roads that connect it. It also sells the software that makes those machines smarter.More on dividend stocks:Semiconductor dividend stock shows 40 percent upside as AI demand upWall Street sees 57% upside for iconic tech dividend stockHow much to invest in Coca-Cola for $1,000 annual dividends in 2026The company's Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings (ended in January), showed all four segments growing net sales year-over-year. Equipment operations net sales climbed 18% to $8 billion. Construction and Forestry alone surged 34%. Small Ag and Turf jumped 24%.That kind of broad-based growth is what you want to see from a dividend stock amid a challenging macro environment. Management also raised full-year guidance. Net income is now expected between $4.5 billion and $5 billion. Cash flow from equipment operations was raised by $500 million at both ends of the range, now projected between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.Chief Financial Officer Josh Jepsen summed up the quarter plainly: "All business segments operated efficiently and delivered results ahead of plan."Deere: A focus on dividend growthAccording to data from Fiscal.ai, Deere's annualized dividend is expected to increase to $6.48 per share in 2026, up from $0.78 per share in fiscal 2006. Related: Down 23%, is this Warren Buffett dividend stock undervalued?Analysts tracking the dividend stock forecast free cash flow to expand from $6.10 billion in fiscal 2025 to $7.40 billion in 2028. With an annual dividend expense of $1.75 billion, the dividend is well covered, while allowing the company to target organic growth and acquisitions. A snapshot of the key numbers to know:Dividend per share (FY2026 estimates): $6.48Dividend history: Continuous payments since 1972 Payout consistency: Raised through multiple downturns, including the current oneDividend payout ratio in fiscal 2026: less than 50%The dividend growth trajectory here is steady and real. That matters in an environment where plenty of companies are cutting or pausing payouts.Deere and the AI boomIt's easy to think of Deere purely through the lens of agriculture. But the Construction and Forestry segment is positioned to drive future growth. Deere's order backlog in Construction and Forestry rose more than 50% in a single quarter, reaching its highest level since May 2024. Retail settlements for construction and compact construction equipment both grew in the mid-teens year over year in Q1.What's driving that? Infrastructure spending tied to U.S. government programs, declining interest rates, and, perhaps most notably, data center construction tied to the artificial intelligence buildout. Deere is bullish on AI-powered growthShutterstock As Construction and Forestry President Ryan Campbell put it during the earnings call: "There's a huge demand to support the required infrastructure for AI investments."The company is also launching its first fully Deere-designed excavators, to be unveiled at CONEXPO in Las Vegas. Excavators represent 40% of the North American construction equipment industry. Deere hasn't had its own design in this category before and this is a meaningful shift.What's next for the dividend stockAgriculture is still Deere's largest business. And while large ag has been under pressure, with the North American industry expected to decline 15% to 20% in fiscal 2026, management is seeing early signs of a bottom.Used inventory for late-model tractors has dropped sharply. Model year 2022 and 2023 8R tractors are down more than 40% from their March 2025 peak. Order books for large tractors now stretch into Q4. Combines has finished the early order program better than expected.The USDA recently approved a $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program. China has resumed buying U.S. soybeans, while government biofuel policies could provide additional tailwinds.None of this is a sharp inflection, but for a dividend stock like Deere, stability in the underlying business is often all income investors need to feel confident about the next payment.The company returned nearly$750 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in Q1 alone. That kind of capital return, in the middle of a down cycle, is a testament to the financial durability that has kept operations running for nearly two centuries.Related: This Dow 30 dividend stock is up 100% in the past year