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At $110 Oil, a Longer War Is Here for Markets

John Authers
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1 min read
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Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei—son of the slain former leader—signals continuity, not surrender, escalating geopolitical tensions and triggering a 60% weekly surge in Brent crude to $110 per barrel, a four-year high. Global markets reacted sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunging 7% as traders price in prolonged conflict risks, reflecting bets on an extended war driving energy and economic instability. Soaring oil prices are fueling inflation pressures, particularly in fuel and food, complicating economic outlooks ahead of U.S. midterms and potentially undermining political incumbents like Trump. The leadership transition in Iran, far from easing tensions, reinforces hardline policies, dashing hopes for near-term de-escalation and prolonging supply-chain disruptions tied to the conflict. Energy-driven inflation and market volatility now dominate 2026’s economic narrative, with traders bracing for sustained geopolitical premiums in commodity prices and heightened financial uncertainty.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Bad midterms news for Trump: Both fuel and food inflation are now under pressure.Betting increasingly favors a longer war.Source: AFP/Getty To get John Authers’ newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Iran has chosen a new leader, and it’s Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain former supreme leader. This isn’t regime change, or the choice of a country about to surrender, and it contributed to a shocking open to trade in Asia. Brent crude is now above $110 per barrel, up 60% for the week, while in Japan, the Nikkei 225 is down 7% at the time of writing. Crude is at a four-year high:

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