$100 Oil Won't Sink The U.S. Economy

Amrita RoyInvesting GroupFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryThe S&P 500 faces short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions and the 'Trump risk premium,' yet I remain long-term bullish.Despite $100+ oil, the US economy is unlikely to enter recession due to declining energy intensity, resilient consumer balance sheets, and net energy exporter status.Key risks include energy inequality impacting lower-income households and tightening corporate liquidity from higher oil prices and rising bond spreads.Resolution scenarios for the Iran conflict suggest either a near-term escalation followed by a quick resolution or a controlled conflict followed by a negotiated outcome later in the month.In both instances, I believe we will see peaking of oil prices and the 10Y US Treasury yields, which will further lower recession odds and will lead to a meaningful reversal in the index.Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The REIT Forum get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images Introduction Last week, the entire nation and the market expected US President Donald Trump to de-escalate the Iran war. That did not happen. On Saturday, Trump wrote in a social media post, saying, “Time is running out—48 hours before all hellThis article was written byAmrita Roy6.02K FollowersFollowAmrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the family fund. The fund's objective is to invest capital in sustainable, growth-driven companies that maximize shareholder equity by meeting their growth-oriented goals. In addition, she also started her own award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist which focuses on portfolio strategy, valuation, and macroeconomics in concert with her husband Uttam Dey who is also a contributor on Seeking Alpha. Prior to cofounding her fund, Amrita worked for 5 years in high-growth supply-chain start-ups in downtown San Francisco, where she led strategy. During her time in the Bay Area, she also worked with venture capital firms and start-ups, where her efforts led her to grow the user acquisition business. During this time, she was introduced to investment portfolios and was able to maximize returns for clients during the pandemic. The cornerstone of Amritas work rests on democratizing financial literacy for everyone and breaking down financial jargon and complex macroeconomic concepts into formats that are easily digestible but more empowering than the typical investment thesis. Her newsletter has been featured as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular newsletter platforms and she aims to bring her ideas to Seeking Alpha as well.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in SPY over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.