The 1-Minute Market Report, February 15, 2026

Erik Conley13.08K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)Comments(2)SummaryThe S&P 500's recent 1.4% weekly decline highlights growing market complacency and signals a need for increased caution.My bear market probability model assigns a 25% chance of a bear market in the next 4–6 months, suggesting prudent cash-raising.Rotation from U.S. large caps, especially the Mag 7, into value, foreign stocks, and defensive sectors continues to gain momentum.Despite short-term weakness, historical seasonality and up-day indicators still support a cautiously bullish outlook for year-end performance. SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Two weeks ago I wrote an article called “The Market Bubble Is About To Burst.” It caused quite a stir among my subscribers and followers because the title made it sound as if IThis article was written byErik Conley13.08K FollowersFollowFor 28 years, I was a professional trader, analyst & portfolio manager. I ran the equity trading desk at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. Now I am a private investor, the founder of a nonprofit investor advocacy firm, and a private investing coach. My average annual return is 17.2%. The time period is from January 2009, when I first began publishing my stock picks, to the end of 2024. I publish my picks in newsletter format and send them directly to subscribers on a weekly basis. For my complete market outlook and model portfolio updates, visit zeninvestor.org.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.