Will Taiwan Semiconductor Be Worth More Than Nvidia by 2030?
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By Jennifer Saibil – Apr 23, 2026 at 3:20AM ESTKey PointsTaiwan Semiconductor is a key manufacturer in the AI industry.It works with a multitude of chip designers.Its revenues increased 41% year over year in the first quarter.Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +5.33%) has emerged as one of the most important players in artificial intelligence (AI). While it's not developing exciting AI capabilities like Nvidia (NVDA +1.23%) or Palantir Technologies, it plays a major part in the process, manufacturing the high-end chips that its clients design and that AI software players depend on. It works with a laundry list of the top AI companies, so its shareholders profit from all of their successes. And it produces chips for all kinds of uses beyond AI and data centers, so it enjoys a wide array of growth drivers. After TSMC released its first-quarter results last week, the stock jumped far enough to lift it into the No. 7 spot on the list of the most valuable companies in the world, with a market cap of $1.9 trillion. That's still well behind the No. 1 company, Nvidia, which is worth $4.9 trillion. But could TSMC continue to climb and surpass Nvidia by 2030? Image source: The Motley Fool. The $4.8 trillion opportunity Different research firms see different market opportunities, but according to a U.N. Trade and Development forecast, the AI market will expand in size to $4.8 trillion by 2033. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that he sees a $1 trillion opportunity in AI chip sales for Nvidia in 2026 and 2027 alone, and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has reiterated several times that he thinks there's going to be a major shift to AI, and that Amazon is getting into position to take advantage. TSMC benefits as each of these companies invests. When the market hears that Amazon's planning $200 billion in capital expenditures this year, or that Alphabet's laying out $185 billion, investors should remember that a piece of that is certainly going to end up in TSMC's coffers. ExpandNYSE: TSMTaiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingToday's Change(5.33%) $19.63Current Price$387.71Key Data PointsMarket Cap$2.0TDay's Range$370.68 - $387.9152wk Range$157.39 - $390.20Volume693KAvg Vol13MGross Margin61.02%Dividend Yield0.86% Moving past Nvidia To become more valuable than Nvidia over the next four years or so, TSMC would first have to catch up to where Nvidia is today, or Nvidia would have to fall. However, Nvidia is expecting its own high revenue growth over the next few years. It's growing faster than TSMC today, with a 73% year-over-year sales increase in its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter (which ended Jan. 25), compared to TSMC's sales jump of 41% in its last reported quarter. TSMC stock might have more room to run if it were cheaper than Nvidia, but while it has a lower trailing-12-month P/E ratio, it's not significantly cheaper by that metric. It's also slightly more expensive on a forward, 1-year P/E ratio basis. TSM PE Ratio data by YCharts. TSMC stock might be somewhat less risky than Nvidia right now, which could be a reason to choose it over Nvidia if you're looking for a top AI stock. It's also likely to keep growing and rewarding shareholders. But the company isn't likely to be more valuable than Nvidia by 2030.Read NextApr 22, 2026 •By Jennifer SaibilThis Powerhouse AI Stock Just Became More Valuable Than Broadcom (Briefly) and Meta. Here's Why It's Still an Outstanding Buy.Apr 22, 2026 •By Manali Pradhan, CFAPrediction: This AI Chip Stock Will Become the Next Nvidia by 2030Apr 20, 2026 •By Matt Frankel, CFPBest Tech ETFs for 2026 and How to InvestApr 20, 2026 •By Harsh ChauhanPrediction: The Best Pick-and-Shovel AI Stock of 2026 Won't Be Nvidia or BroadcomApr 20, 2026 •By Parkev Tatevosian, CFAShould You Buy Taiwan Semiconductor Stock on the Dip?Apr 20, 2026 •By Chris NeigerThis AI Stock CEO Just Said Artificial Intelligence Is a "Megatrend." His Company Just Experienced a Huge Profit Boost as a ResultAbout the AuthorJennifer Saibil has been a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering the consumer goods and financial sectors since 2019. She previously worked in the financial sector and has written for other finance publications. She holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Yeshiva University and a master’s degree in public administration from New York University’s Wagner School of Public Service.TMFanibirdStocks MentionedTaiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingNYSE: TSM$387.71(+5.33%)+$19.63NvidiaNASDAQ: NVDA$202.34(+1.23%)+$2.46*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.