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Forget The 4% Rule, Here's The 5% Rule For Retirees

Seeking Alpha
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A veteran investor with 130,000+ hours of experience proposes replacing the traditional 4% retirement withdrawal rule with a 5% strategy using zero-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds. Current market conditions allow locking in a guaranteed 5% annual return for decades via Treasury bond ladders, offering rare long-term predictability amid economic uncertainty. A $36,000 investment in a 20-year zero-coupon bond today ensures a $100,000 payout at maturity, providing a risk-free alternative to volatile equities. Historical data suggests consistent 5% returns often outperform stock indices over 20-year periods, challenging conventional equity-heavy retirement portfolios. The strategy serves as a stable portfolio core, enabling safer aggressive investments elsewhere while preserving capital and ensuring steady income.
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Forget The 4% Rule, Here's The 5% Rule For Retirees

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Sungarden Investment PublishingInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)Comments(5)Follow us on Google for the latest stock newsFollow Seeking Alpha on Google for the latest stock newsSummaryZero-coupon US Treasury ladders currently offer a rare chance to lock in a 5% return for decades.A ladder acts as a "sleep well at night" portfolio core, enabling more aggressive maneuvers in other investments.History shows a predictable 5% return can often outperform volatile stock indices over a 20-year horizon.One example: Investing $36,000 today into a 20-year zero-coupon bond guarantees $100,000 at maturity, providing a clear, predictable return.This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Sungarden Investors Club. Learn More » Jakub Bakala/iStock via Getty Images By my count, I've spent more than 130,000 hours as a professional investor. Advisor (retired), fund manager (same), researcher, CIO, and all of that. So my articles here probably tilt toward the wonky and lengthy side.This article was written bySungarden Investment Publishing11.3K FollowersFollowI'm Rob Isbitts, founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing. I run the new investing group Sungarden Investors Club, a community dedicated to navigating the modern investment climate with humility, discipline, and a non-traditional approach to income investing. I've been charting investments since the 1980s, and I spent decades an an investment advisor and fund manager before semi-retiring in 2020. Now, this investing group is my focus. The markets tells us a story…we just have to listen! I teach subscribers how to do that.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Source: Seeking Alpha