If You Buy Tesla Today, Here's the Bull Case for the Next 3 Years
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By Lee Samaha – Apr 21, 2026 at 5:05PM ESTKey PointsWall Street expects significant gross profit growth from robotaxis by 2029.Robotaxi developments are central to Tesla's bullish investment thesis, and understanding the case for buying the stock. It's no secret that Tesla (TSLA 1.55%) stock isn't valued based on its current earnings, but rather on what it could become as its future robotaxi and robotics businesses grow. In that vein, here's a look at how the market and, in particular, Wall Street analysts are assessing Tesla's growth prospects over the next few years and the growing importance of robotaxis to the outlook. Robotaxis aren't the means to the end It's important to understand that the robotaxi isn't an appendage or an optional extra to Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) business. Instead, it's the natural direction where the industry is headed. There's a reason Tesla's rivals spent billions developing robotaxis, and why Alphabet is effectively subsidizing its loss-making subsidiary, Waymo, to gain an early foothold in the market. Image source: Tesla. The implicit understanding is that the cost-per-mile advantage of EVs will be even greater if they are used autonomously, resulting in an ultra-low cost per mile -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk has talked of an operational cost per mile as low as $0.20 -- which will fundamentally change the transportation market. Tesla's current EV market share, its potentially low cost per mile, cost of vehicle (Cybercab, the dedicated robotaxi in production, is expected to sell for less than $30,000), and billions of miles driven on supervised full-self driving (FSD) software are all big advantages for investors. Analysts hope and expect these factors play out in the growth of robotaxi revenue and profits. ExpandNASDAQ: TSLATeslaToday's Change(-1.55%) $-6.08Current Price$386.42Key Data PointsMarket Cap$1.5TDay's Range$385.22 - $393.9552wk Range$229.85 - $498.83Volume50MAvg Vol63MGross Margin18.03% The bull case for Tesla These positive expectations are reflected in the Wall Street Analyst consensus, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence (Visible Alpha). The consensus calls for Tesla's gross profit to increase from $17.1 billion in 2025 to $29.1 billion in 2028, a compound annual growth rate of 19.4%. However, gross profit from robotaxis is expected to hit just over $2 billion in 2028. As such, Wall Street analysts are factoring in that 6.9% of Tesla's 2028 gross profit will come from robotaxis. That may not sound like much, but consider that it's potentially a much higher gross-profit-margin business than Tesla's automotive (high teens margins) and energy storage and generation (high 20% margins). In addition, it's likely to scale significantly in the coming years as robotaxi usage grows. As such, the consensus calls for $12 billion in gross profit from robotaxis in 2029, accounting for almost 29% of the company's $41.7 billion in gross profit. Image source: Getty Images. What it means for Tesla investors These are just numbers written in cyberink stored on a server, and there's no guarantee any of the forecasts will come to fruition, with significant downside potential for the stock if Tesla's robotaxi rollout disappoints. However, they do help explain just why Tesla investors are willing to look past the current valuation of 200 times 2025 earnings expectations. They also serve to illustrate how important robotaxi developments are for the stock, and the medium-term bullish case for the stock is largely based on them.Read NextApr 21, 2026 •By Keith Noonan3 Company Earnings to Watch This Week (April 20-24)Apr 21, 2026 •By Rick OrfordShould You Buy This Electric Vehicle (EV) Stock Before April 22?Apr 20, 2026 •By Matt Frankel, CFPBest Tech ETFs for 2026 and How to InvestApr 20, 2026 •By Jeremy BowmanIPO Meaning: What Does IPO Stand For?Apr 20, 2026 •By Daniel Sparks2 Major AI Companies Are About to Report Earnings. Here's Why Investors Should Tune In.Apr 20, 2026 •By Scott LevineBest Electric Vehicle (EV) Stocks to Buy in 2026About the AuthorLee Samaha is a contributing Stock Market Analyst at The Motley Fool covering industrials, electricals, energy, materials, transportation, and infrastructure stocks. Prior to The Motley Fool, Lee was a Civil Engineer and Investment Manager. He holds a Bachelor of Civil and Structural Engineering from Southampton University and a Certificate in Investment Management from Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Lee first cut his investing teeth on The Motley Fool bulletin boards (commonly referred to as the “Fool Boards,”) and he’s infinitely grateful to all of the investors he learned from in this powerful investing community.TMFSaintGermainX@LeeSamahaStocks MentionedTeslaNASDAQ: TSLA$386.51(-1.53%)-$5.99AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOGL$332.22(-1.54%)-$5.20AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOG$330.47(-1.47%)-$4.93*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.