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Trump on prediction markets: 'The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino'

Business Insider
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Former President Trump criticized prediction markets in April 2026, calling the global financial landscape "somewhat of a casino" and expressing disapproval of speculative betting on geopolitical and financial outcomes. The comments followed a DOJ indictment of a U.S. soldier for insider trading on Polymarket, using classified details about Nicolás Maduro’s capture to profit over $400,000, sparking legislative scrutiny. Trump acknowledged prediction markets’ accuracy in forecasting his 2024 election odds but reiterated his conceptual opposition, comparing the practice to sports betting scandals like Pete Rose’s. Despite his criticism, his administration’s CFTC chief defended prediction markets as socially valuable, while Trump’s son serves as an advisor to Kalshi and investor in Polymarket. Congress is now debating bills to regulate prediction markets amid concerns over insider trading and federal employees exploiting non-public information for financial gain.
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Trump on prediction markets: 'The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino'

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"I don't like it, conceptually, but it is what it is," Trump said. Will Oliver/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images 2026-04-24T15:27:50.734Z Share Copy link Email Facebook WhatsApp X LinkedIn Bluesky Threads lighning bolt icon An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt.

Impact Link Save Saved Read in app This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. Have an account? Log in. Trump weighed in on prediction markets — and didn't sound too happy about them. "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump told reporters. It came after the DOJ indicted a US soldier for profiting off of the Maduro raid via Polymarket. AI-generated summary Summaries are generated by an AI model trained on Business Insider's articles. AI may make mistakes or provide inaccurate/incomplete information. We're unable to load that answer right now. Please try again. What are prediction markets? Why might Trump dislike prediction markets? Who regulates prediction markets in the US? How do prediction markets work? What is Polymarket's role in prediction?

President Donald Trump sure doesn't sound like a prediction market enthusiast. Loading audio narration... Asked on Thursday if he was concerned about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was "never much in favor" of betting in financial markets."The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump said. "I don't like it, conceptually, but it is what it is. No, I think that I'm not happy with any of this." "They have all these different sites, they have 'predictive markets,'" Trump continued. "It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than it was."Reporter: There are also bets being placed on the Iran conflict. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned?Trump: Unfortunately, the whole world has become somewhat of a casino. I don't like it conceptually. It is what it is. pic.twitter.com/t1OPOUWHub— Acyn (@Acyn) April 23, 2026 Trump's comments came shortly after the Department of Justice indicted a US Army soldier who was involved in the planning of the US capture of Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors say Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information to reap more than $400,000 in profit on Polymarket. That trade caught the public's attention in early January, leading to the introduction of a raft of bills on Capitol Hill to both rein in the industry and protect against potential insider trading.On Thursday, Trump said he wasn't aware of the indictment, but joked that the case sounded like when Pete Rose, the former manager of the Cincinnati Reds, was caught betting on his own team. "Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good. But he bet on his own team," Trump said.Reporter: There was a special forces soldier involved in the capture of Maduro who was arrested on suspicion of insider trading. Are you concerned that federal employees are betting on these reduction markets and potentially getting rich? Trump: Well, I don't know about it. Was… pic.twitter.com/zmPNGuVL1s— Acyn (@Acyn) April 23, 2026 Trump previously told The Washington Post that prediction markets are better than "fake polls," referencing the fact that both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Trump stronger odds of winning the 2024 election than traditional polling. "They predicted me pretty right… by a landslide," Trump said at the time.Trump's lament about prediction markets, which seemed to echo some comments that Democrats have made about the industry's impact on society, contrasts with the way his administration has approached the industry.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig, the top federal regulator of prediction markets, has moved to defend prediction market companies in the midst of legal battles with states over sports and elections betting."It's something that I think is valuable to society," Selig said of prediction markets in a February podcast appearance. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is also financially involved in the industry, serving as a strategic advisor to Kalshi while investing in Polymarket.

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